000 AGXX40 KNHC 120806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 406 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WIND REPORTS FROM BUOYS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INDICATE THAT A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST IS BECOME DIFFUSE AS WELL. MEANWHILE STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SHIFT SE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF FLORIDA AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLC. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LOW PRES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. EXPECT 20 KT E TO SE WINDS BY FRI...AND 20 TO 25 KT SE WINDS BY SAT. NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE WAVE GUIDANCE SHOWING SEAS OVER THE NW GULF PEAKING NEAR 10 FT BY EARLY SUN...LIKELY IN SE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR NW GULF BY LATE MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE BASIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ALSO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE 15 KT EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW IS NOTED. GLOBAL MODELS STILL KEEP THE GENERALLY PHILOSOPHY OF WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. EXPECT NE TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...MAINLY THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES BY LATE SAT...PERSISTING THROUGH MON OVER MOST OF THE BASIN AS HIGH PRES SETTLES N OF THE AREA. SEAS BUILD TO FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PEAKING TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY MON PER NWW3/FNMOC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 19N W OF 55W.. BUOYS SHOW EAST TRADES MAINLY AROUND 15 KT WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 20 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SEAS ARE ONLY 6 FT AT BUOY 41101 AROUND 270 NM E OF MARTINIQUE...BUT HAVE JUMPED TO 9 FT AT BUOY 41040 AROUND 180 NM FURTHER EAST. THIS IS EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NE SWELL APPROACHING THE AREA CAUSED BY LONG DURATION/FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS. SEAS WILL PEAK THIS MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 6 FT OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TRADES AND NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE SUN...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT AS A WEAK DYING FRONT STALLS N OF THE AREA FOLLOWED BY RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT N OF THE AREA. SW NORTH ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 31N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHIFT E AND REACH FROM 31N57W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM 31N55W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. NW TO N WINDS ARE FOLLOWING THE FRONT INTO THE WATERS N OF 29N...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RIDGE WITH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH HOWEVER...MAINLY S OF 25N AND ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST BY LATE FRI. THE HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE BETWEEN NE FLORIDA AND BERMUDA NEAR 31N70W BY LATE SUN...MAINTAINING PERSISTENT FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS S OF 25N...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 9 FT OUTSIDE THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY LATE SUN...THEN VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH PRES SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS NE. NOTE... EFFECTIVE APR 3, 2012 AT 1800 UTC THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST ZONES CHANGED FOR THE CARIBBEAN AND SW N ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISSUANCE TIME FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS IS REFERENCED TO THE EASTERN TIME ZONE. FOR DETAILS SEE WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF GRIDDED MARINE OUTPUT IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE (LOWER CASE). GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN