000 AGXX40 KNHC 290634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDS E-W ALONG 31-32N THIS MORNING WITH E-SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S AND BECOME STATIONARY ALONG 27N LATER TODAY WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO SW ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE N OF THE RIDGE. THE FLOW WILL BECOME SE-S AT 15-20 KT SUN OVER THE WATERS W OF 94W AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. GUIDANCE HAS COMPLETELY REVERSED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE CONSENSUS IS THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER THE TIMING DIFFERS FROM MODEL TO MODEL...SO PLAN TO GO WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE FOR TIMING FOR NOW TILL A CONSENSUS DEVELOPS IN THE GUIDANCE ARRAY. NOTE THAT THIS ENSEMBLE HAS THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH SE FL TUE NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECM FOR THE STRENGTH OF THE NLY FLOW...20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF...AND 20-30 KT OVER THE SW GULF...AS THEY SEEM TO BE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH LARGER SPREAD. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TO THE N OF 19N AS EXPECTED. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEW ROUND OF NLY SWELL...COMBINED SEAS TO 11 FT...IS JUST NOW ARRIVING ALONG 22N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 9 FT AS THEY REACH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AROUND SUNSET TODAY...AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS THEY CONTINUE S THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS WITH A MAX OF ONLY ABOUT 7 FT AS THEY REACH THE N COAST OF S AMERICA AT SUNRISE SAT...BY THAT TIME MIXING WITH NE TRADE SWELL AS WELL. FURTHER N...A SURFACE HIGH AT 28N67W ATTM RIDGES E AND W ALONG 28N. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE AND DISSIPATE LEAVING A RIDGE E-W FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 26N-28N LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NE WATERS TO THE S OF BERMUDA...THEN STALLS FROM 31N55W TO 29N65W TO 31N71W FRI NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH SAT. THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E-W ALONG 27N SAT BUT WEAKEN AND SHIFT E ON SAT NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE NE WATERS SUN AND MON. THE SW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NW WATERS MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... NE-E TRADES ARE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND CARIBBEAN EXCEPT ENHANCED TO 20-25 KT NEAR NW COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...THEN THE ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT... AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON