000 AGXX40 KNHC 180756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 356 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... VERY WEAK RIDGE ACROSS W ATLC TONIGHT EXTENDING W ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND NE GULF COASTS ALONG 31N WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAK 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 70W COLLAPSES OVERNIGHT AND ALLOWS RIDGE TO REORGANIZE AS STRONGER HIGH ACROSS NW ATLC DROPS S TOWARDS BERMUDA AND BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND SW ACROSS THE GULF MON AND TUE. CURRENTLY...MODERATE SELY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR LIGHT WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS. AS THE NW ATLC HIGH BEGINS TO SINK S TONIGHT AND DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES...THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE BASIN WILL INCREASE TO YIELD 20 KT SE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE W HALF OF THE BASIN OVERNIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 25 KT....THEN VEER SLIGHTLY TO S TO SE AND INCREASE TO 20 KT BASIN WIDE...AND 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF W HALF MON NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN S TEXAS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING IN NW TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY STALL FROM SW LA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N98W TUE NIGHT...BEFORE UPPER SUPPORT PUSHES FRONT EWD WED MORNING. NLY WINDS 15-25 KT INITIALLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT TUE EVENING THEN QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-30 KT EARLY WED AND THEN S OF 22N WED AFTERNOON. LATEST RUNS OF GLOBAL MODELS ALL NOW SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR MINIMAL GALES BEHIND FRONT WED AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN MORNING PACKAGE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS STRONG DYNAMICS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...WITH SLOW MOVING DEEP LAYERED LOW TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WED EVENING...WITH STALLED FRONT FROM MOUTH OF MISSISSIPPI TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SQUALLS AND TSTMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE WILL AFFECT THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING NEARLY E TO W ALONG 31N WILL WEAKEN AND REFORM TONIGHT AND EARLY MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS S ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A SOMEWHAT BACK DOOR FASHION. BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGHING CARVED OUT BETWEEN 55W AND 70W CURRENTLY...WITH THREE SEPARATE LLVL TROUGHS EVIDENT THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES ACROSS NW ATLC BEHIND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BUILD S INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND MON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN OLD AND VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT ACROSS NE PORTIONS AT THIS TIME WILL SINK S TO ALONG 23N-24N AT 65W MON NIGHT AND BEGIN TO CREATE A TIGHT GRADIENT N OF THIS OLD BOUNDARY... PRODUCING AN ELONGATED ZONE OF NE TO E WINDS 20-25 KT TONIGHT THAT WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND W INTO THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED. SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-9 FT WITHIN THIS ZONE OF STRENGTHENING WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK ATLC RIDGE AND DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING ACROSS ATLC BETWEEN 55W AND 70W ALLOWING ONLY MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DECIDEDLY NE DIRECTION ACROSS THE SW CARIB...WHERE PEAK WINDS TO 25 KT ARE FOUND OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS DEPICTED BY AN 0248 ASCAT PASS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME MORE ON MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WED AND THU. EXPECT GENERALLY NE TO E WINDS 15 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT WHERE LOCAL EFFECTS CAUSE ENHANCEMENT...WITH SEAS AT 6 FT OR LESS ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TUE EXCEPT OFF COAST OF COLOMBIA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING