000 AGXX40 KNHC 221916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST WED FEB 22 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGING CONTINUES NEARLY E-W ACROSS GULF ALONG 25-26N WITH RETURN FLOW EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS N HALF OF GULF UNTIL NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO BASIN FRI. SWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING N OF 28N AND GENERALLY PERSIST UNTIL FRONT ENTERS NW GULF FRI MORNING. SLY FLOW TO DOMINATE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF FRONT THU NIGHT AND FRI MORNING AND BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS E PORTIONS OF 6-7 FT BY MIDDAY FRI. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE IN EVOLUTION OF FROPA ACROSS THE GULF THIS WEEKEND BETWEEN THE MODELS...WITH THE GFS FASTEST IN ENTERING THE NW GULF...AROUND 06Z FRI...WHILE EURO MODELS DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL 12Z FRI AND ARE NOT AS PROGRESSIVE WITH FRONT ACROSS ERN GULF AND INTO SW N ATLC. THIS ALSO AFFECTS POTENTIAL GALE ONSET BEHIND FRONT ACROSS WRN PORTIONS AS A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG FRONT AS IT SINKS INTO SW GULF FRI NIGHT. AT THIS TIME AM OPTING FOR A SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A NEAR COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. ONSET OF GALES THUS TO BEGIN 00Z SAT...W OF FRONT BETWEEN 21N AND 26N. FURTHER DEPARTURE BETWEEN MODELS BY SUN WITH REMNANTS OF WAVE ALONG TROUGH ACROSS SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 20-21N E OF 70W...WHILE LONG PERIOD NLY SWELL HAS BEGUN TO HIT THE NE CARIB ISLANDS THIS MORNING...AND WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH TROPICAL N ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ATLC HIGH CENTER IS SHIFTING NE...PRESSURE IS BUILDING AND MAINTAINING RIDGE ACROSS SW N ATLC AND FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF BASIN E OF 80W. MAX WINDS OFF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE NEAR 30 KT NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SEAS 11-13 FT RANGE THERE...WITH EXPANDING ZONE OF 20 KT TRADES ACROSS E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT STALL THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND HIGH PRES BEHIND FRONT REINFORCES CURRENT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE. WINDS OFF COLOMBIA COULD REACH GALE FORCE BY SUN AS THIS NEW HIGH PASSES DUE NORTH OF W CENTRAL CARIB. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT HAS LIFTED OUT...AND BOUNDARY IS TRANSITIONING TO SHEARLINE BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. NW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS PEAKED THIS MORNING WITH SECONDARY N-NE PULSE MOVING THROUGH BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGH ACROSS W CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT NE AND STRENGTHEN...AND MAINTAIN ASSOCIATED RIDGE ALONG 24-25N THROUGH FRI MORNING WHEN FRONT ENTERS GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NW WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE UNTIL FROPA EARLY SAT. AGAIN...MODEL DIFFERENCES FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WITH TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT AND HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE UKMET-ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH FRONT FROM NEAR 30N70W TO FLORIDA STRAITS BY 00Z SUN THEN 28.5N65W TO NW CUBA BY 12Z SUN. STRONG N-NE FLOW BEHIND FRONT WILL MAKE FOR SQUALLY WEATHER AND VERY ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS NW BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS LATE SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE FRI-SAT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING