000 AGXX40 KNHC 181832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WARM FRONT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHORELINE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING INLAND. THIS WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRES NEAR THE SE TEXAS COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW INTO NE OLD MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE WARM FRONT AS CAPTURED BY A 1520 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH RECENT REPORTS FROM NDBC BUOYS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE WHILE DEEPENING TONIGHT (REMAINING INLAND THROUGHOUT) DRAGGING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA MON MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF SUN EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT AND MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE N. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF MON NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NW GULF TUE EVENING WITH A NEW COLD FRONT SKIRTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM NEAR 22N61W TO THE TROUGH AS SEEN BY SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT STALLING IN THE FAR NW PORTION WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE MON. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM THE N. NW SWELL TO 13 FT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE WED INTO THU BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STALLING COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N63W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A 1516 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WHILE A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE GA/FL COAST SUN EVENING REACHING FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING...MOVING E OF THE AREA TUE. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT N OF 30N E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT. LARGE NORTHERLY SWELL TO 15 FT WILL IMPACT THE NE CORNER OF THE AREA MON THROUGH TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED...INCREASING ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N LATE WED INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION THU AFTERNOON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 30N E OF FRONT AND N OF 29N W OF FRONT SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY