000 AGXX40 KNHC 101501 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST FRI FEB 10 2012 ...UPDATED ENTIRE DISCUSSION AND TO REFLECT ATLC WARNINGS... MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE LOW 1015 MB AT 24N95W HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING NW TO SE ACROSS THE SW GULF EFFECTIVELY SEPARATING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS FROM NW TO SW OF THE TROUGH AND SE TO THE NE OF THE TROUGH. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NE TO NEAR 27N93W THIS EVENING AND AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RACE SE OF AREA ON SAT AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS BY LATE MON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TX COAST MON EVENING... REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE WATERS WED...BUT THE PORTION OF THE FRONT W OF 90W WILL DRIFT N THROUGH WED NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO SE FL WILL DRIFT N IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE GA COAST THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE FL STRAITS ON SAT...FROM 27N65W TO HISPANIOLA ON SUN...THEN MOVE SE OF AREA MON. SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE NW WATERS TUE. PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MINIMAL GALE WILL DEVELOP WITHIN N OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM W OF FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT...WITH THE NW WINDS DIMINISHING JUST BELOW GALE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING. A SECONDARY SURGE WILL DRIVE WINDS BACK UP TO MINIMAL GALE OVER THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...WHILE ALSO INCREASING THE SW FLOW OVER THE WATERS N OF 30N WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM E OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINS ELY TRADE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND STALLS AND DISSIPATES FROM 22N60W TO HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS MON AND TUE. NLY WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT W OF THE FRONT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING N OF 30N WITHIN 90 NM OF FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT. GALE WARNING N OF 29N W OF FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND ALSO N OF 30N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON