000 AGXX40 KNHC 311801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE JAN 31 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... E-SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES E OF THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS EASTWARD. FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 89W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. COASTAL RADARS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE NW GULF AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE E GULF. LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WED MORNING. PRES GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED NIGHT AND THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER E AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT IN THE W GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. AREA OF MODERATE HIGH PRES BUILDING SWD OVER FLORIDA AND LOW PRES INTENSIFYING OVER THE LOWER PLAINS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE MID/EASTERN GULF FRI AND SAT WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW GULF EARLY SAT ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM SE-S AHEAD OF IT TO N-NE AT 20-25 KT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM LOUISIANA TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER SAT...AND FROM ALABAMA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO SUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC FROM 30N60W TO THE BAHAMAS. MINOR WIND/TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE FOUND ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. AS A RESULT...CURRENT CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH NE TO E WINDS AROUND 15 KT AND 5-7 FT SEAS ACROSS NEARLY ALL THE SW N ATLC ZONE...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER TRADE WINDS TO 20-25 KT S OF 25N W OF 70W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN FLORIDA STRAITS. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNIFORM IN TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH 15-20 KT NE WINDS AND 7-9 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL GENERATED BY A LONG FETCH OF NE TRADE WINDS IN CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E THROUGH WED NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF N FLORIDA COAST THU. DEEPENING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF SW N ATLC THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES E...BRINGING AREA OF LARGE NW SWELL TO NE PORTION OF SW N ATLC SAT...SPREADING INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND LOW PRES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING STRONG E-NE TRADE WINDS WITH GALES OBSERVED NEAR 12N75W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS AREA THROUGH WED...THEN DIMINISH A BIT WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AGAIN FRI AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS S TOWARD NRN PORTIONS OF CARIBBEAN. REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE WITH 20-25 KT ENE WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8-12 FT MAINLY BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 14 FT IN THE GALE AREA. WINDWARD PASSAGE HAS WINDS TO 25 KT BASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ATLANTIC PASSAGES THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL ATLC... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL