000 AGXX40 KNHC 161943 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN N CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE IS KEEPING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SRN WATERS S OF ABOUT 25N WHERE A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING REPORTED NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOW GENERALLY SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF...AND E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE EASTERN SECTION EXCEPT S OF 25N WHERE THE HIGHER WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED. SEA STATE ANALYSES BASED ON SHIP DATA FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED SEAS OF UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WRN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE 1037 MB HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO WELL E OF U.S. E COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HRS PULLING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE FAR EASTERN GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA AND WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SWEEP SEWD ACROSS TEXAS ON TUE. UNTIL THEN...WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE GULF WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE-S WHILE DECREASING SOME IN SPEEDS. LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS ARE CLOSE WITH PRETTY CLOSE IN HINTING THAT THE FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF ON TUE EVENING. TODAY'12 UTC ECMWF RUN IS SIMILAR WITH THE GFS IN TIMING OF FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY TUE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA SW TO NE MEXICO EARLY...FROM TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO 25N89W TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WED EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH EASTERN TEXAS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY BECOME NW-N 15-20 KT TUE NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO NE AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT ON WED. GFS IS NOW SIMILAR WITH ECMWF WITH DEPICTING LIGHTER NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SW...BUT MAINLY N OF 26N THROUGH WED NIGHT. WINDS VEER AROUND QUICKLY AND ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THU...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SW AT 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE FAR SE WATERS FROM 22N65W TO THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. STRONG HIGH PRES PREVAILS TO THE W OF THE COLD FRONT MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE MUCH OF THE WATERS. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM 1500 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO NW OF THE FRONT AND EXTRAPOLATED TO NEAR 78W S OF 27N. BUOYS REPORT LIGHTER NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF 27N W OF 78W. WINDS SE OF THE FRONT ARE NE-E 10-15 KT. SEAS UP 13 FT IN A N SWELL ARE POSSIBLE N OF 28N E OF 73W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE E OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WED. THE HIGH SEAS OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH WED MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING AS THE STRONG RIDGE SLIDES TO E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW 20-25 KT WINDS TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS BEGINNING TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED S YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN ACROSS THE SE PORTION FRI INTO SAT SIMILAR TO WHAT THE CURRENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO DO. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR NRN BOUNDARY OF THE ZONE FRI...AND INCREASING SW WINDS SET UP AGAIN OVER THE NW WATERS SAT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SE U.S. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE NW AND NRN CARIBBEAN WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA HAS RESULTED IN GALE FORCE NE-E 30-35 KT WINDS TO OCCUR WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 1504 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WINDS WERE UNDERWAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL EARLY WED. SEAS THERE ARE UP TO AROUND 13 OR 14 FT. ELSEWHERE THE STRONG GRADIENT IS KEEPING NE-E 20-30 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WHILE NE-E 20-25 KT ARE ELSEWHERE W OF ABOUT 68W. A LIGHTER GRADIENT E OF 68W IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WED AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THU NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW AND STRENGTHENS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ084...GALE WARNING S OF 12N E OF 77W.... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE