000 AGXX40 KNHC 122006 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST THU JAN 12 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A RATHER ROBUST COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO 25N93W...AND TO INLAND NE MEXICO. BOTH BUOY AND OIL RIG PLATFORMS REVEAL THE SHARP WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FROM SW-W AT 15-20 KT TO NW-N AT 20-30 KT BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1624 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED A LARGE SWATH OF NW-N WINDS OF 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT COVERING JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE NW GULF...AND N CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF. MUCH LIGHTER WINDS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT TO THE E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WHERE SW-W WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE PRESENT. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD...A VERY PRONOUNCED SURGE OF NLY FLOW DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRES OF 1032 MB OVER S CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT IN GALE FORCE WINDS TO MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT PRIMARILY IN THE SW GULF ZONE IN SHORT WHILE...AND THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PLATFORM OIL RIGS IN THE NW GULF HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DURING THE DAY. SEAS HAVE BUILD PRETTY FAST IN THE NW GULF BEHIND THE GULF AS BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W HAS MAXED OUT TO 12 FT...AND A SHORT WHILE AGO HAD 13 FT. THIS IS ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN WHAT THE MULTIGRID NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE WAS ADVERTISING. THE FRONT WILL REACH TO THE SE GULF WATERS EARLY ON FRI...AND EXIT THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE FAR SE WATERS IS RESULTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THERE. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. IN THE LONG TERM...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STRENGTHENING WHICH ALLOWS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS DEDUCED FROM THE RAPID LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTION THERE. LATEST MODEL RUNS STILL HINT THAT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE EAST AND CENTRAL BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT S CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW INTENSIFYING THE PRES GRADIENT INTO SUN BEFORE WEAKENING SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS MENTION IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS ...30 METER MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 35 KT THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE MUCH INTO EARLY NEXT AS THE STRONG PRES GRADIENT HOLDS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE SRN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED FROM FAR WESTERN CUBA SW TO ACROSS THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE OVER AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THEN. THE STRONG GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL WILL MERGE WITH THE THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ON FRI WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING SE FROM THE GULF INTO MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL FORTIFY THE ALREADY PRESENT NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT INTO 20-25 KT WINDS SAT AFTERNOON INTO MON. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS THERE TO 9 FT...AND TO POSSIBLY 13 OR 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO AROUND 11 OR 12 FT SUN INTO TUE. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N75W SW TO ACROSS S FLORIDA. FAST ZONAL FLOW IS RESULTING IN W WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N PER ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND BUOY REPORTS. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED SE-S WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE FRONT AND SW 20-25 KT N OF 29N E OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI. AS FOR MODELS...THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS FROM 31N78W TO 28N81W BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN QUICKLY REACH FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA FRI...AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FIRST FRONT FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL ON SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE AND STRENGTHEN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A BRIEF SHOT OF W-NW WINDS OF 20-30 KT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N TONIGHT INTO FRI. LARGE NW SWELLS WITH SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT WILL SPREAD INTO THE NE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A POLAR COLD FRONT SWEEPS SE JUST TO THE NE OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 96W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE