000 AGXX40 KNHC 112003 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EST WED JAN 11 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS OF 18 UTC IT EXTENDS FROM JUST S OF TAMPA FLORIDA SW TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NWS RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE MESOSCALE TSTM COMPLEX SE OF THE FRONT APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WRN CUBA. LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS FREQUENT STRIKES IN THESE STORMS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH OFFSHORE BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS CLEARLY REVEAL THAT WINDS ARE NOW W-NW 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N TO 95W WHERE THEY BECOME SW-W AT 15-20 KT. FAR NRN GULF BUOYS ALONG WITH A 1504 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT HIGHER WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-88W. WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT ARE LIGHTER...W-NW 15 KT...AND HAVE BECOME VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE SW GULF ZONE. SEAS PEAKED TO 11 FT IN THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF...AND ARE 5-8 FT ELSEWHERE N OF 26N...AND LOWER IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE S OF 26N. MODELS ARE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT INTO THU WHILE WEAKENING. THE 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO THU. MODELS ARE AGAIN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF LATE TONIGHT UNDER A VERY ACTIVE SRN STREAM...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EXITING THE GULF BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN AND SLIDE EASTWARD LATE SUN AND MON. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS MAINTAINING N-NE WINDS OF ABOUT 15-20 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT THERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS SEEN IN A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 15 UTC HINTED AT WINDS OF 25-30 KT VERY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE NOW LIGHTER ELY WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING THU AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SW INTENSIFYING THE PRES GRADIENT INTO SUN BEFORE WEAKENING SOME INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 30 METER MODEL WIND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 35 KT THROUGH THU NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THAT OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT WILL HANG UP IN THAT VICINITY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS FIRST FRONT LATER ON FRI INTO SAT WITH STRONG HIGH BUILDING SE FROM THE GULF INTO MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT WILL FORTIFY THE ALREADY PRESENT NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT INTO 20-25 KT WINDS SAT AFTERNOON INTO MON. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS THERE TO 9 FT...AND TO POSSIBLY 12 OR 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FRI INTO EARLY SAT BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME THROUGH MON. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N66W SW TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD OVER NRN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY NW OVER THE SE BAHAMAS. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS E OF 73W S OF 27N WHERE DIRECTION IS E-SE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE EXCEPT SPEEDS OF 15-20 KT AT TIME ARE NOTED S OF 22N BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HAITI. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE IN THE FAR NE PORTION WHERE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE SEEN...AND W OF 73W WHERE THE GRADIENT IS RESPONDING TO THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. WINDS THERE ARE S-SW AT 20-25 KT N OF 26N...AND S-SW 15-20 KT S OF 26N. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND CUBA WHERE THEY ARE SLIGHTER HIGHER AT 3-5 FT...AND N OF 26N W OF 76W WHERE THEY HAVE BUILD TO 6-8 FT IN THE INCREASING SLY FLOW...AND ALSO DUE TO HIGHER WIND GUSTS WITH THE NUMEROUS TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FORECAST...BASED ON AN EVALUATION OF LATEST NWP MODEL RUNS...HAS THE THE RIDGE SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY SAT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO TO QUICKLY REACH FROM FROM NEAR 31N77W TO S FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...FROM NEAR 31N75W TO WESTERN CUBA EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY THU NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT ...AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA FRI...FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT...AND FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SAT...THEN WEAKEN AND STALL ON SUN. THE SLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTS...BUT SHOULD BE MORE PROMINENT N OF 26N. WINDS BECOME W AT 20-25 KT W OF THE FRONT TONIGHT N OF 26N WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 30N FRI AND FRI BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT FRI AFTERNOON...AND TO 10 TO 15 KT FRI NIGHT AND SAT. BY SUN...YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLIP THE FAR NRN WATERS BEFORE MOVING E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS S AND SE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT SUPPORTING RATHER STRONG NLY WINDS. VERY LARGE N SWELLS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN TO INVADE THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS ON MON...WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VALUES OF UP OF 17-20 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE