000 AGXX40 KNHC 090656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST MON JAN 9 2012 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SLY RETURN FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. THE 0318 UTC ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING...THEN MOVING E OF THE GULF LATE WED. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE NW AND SW GULF WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF ON TUE. MODEL GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS IN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THU AND QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH GULF WATERS...MERGING WITH THE FIRST FRONT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRI. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR BEHIND THE REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE SW GULF BY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE NOTED BY THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE NE-E TRADES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE TROUGH AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THERE TO 10-15 KT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE THU WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE THU INTO FRI AS A 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 40N40W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... FRESH NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE SE WATERS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST OFF NE FLORIDA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NE PORTION BY LATE TUE PRODUCING A BRIEF EPISODE OF 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE W HALF INCREASING TO 20-30 KT E OF NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE WED REACHING FROM 31N75W TO SE FLORIDA THU MORNING...THEN FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA FRI MORNING. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO REACH FROM 31N65W TO EASTERN CUBA FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR N OF 27N ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL NEAR 31N FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR