000 AGXX40 KNHC 311745 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1245 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A HIGH PRES CENTER OVER THE E-CENTRAL GULF WATERS HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING W TO THE SE TX COAST. AREAS OF FOG OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT E EARLY TONIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NW WATERS...AND CLEAR OUT THE FOG JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUN. THE FAST MOVING FRONT WILL REACH FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE SE OF AREA MON EVENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...SO I ADJUSTED THE AREA OF MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TO ONLY THE GULF WATERS S OF 23N W OF 95W ON MON INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 14 FT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE MON NIGHT...BUT QUICKLY SUBSIDE AS THE STRONG N FLOW SHUTS COMPLETELY OFF OVER THE SW GULF DURING TUE EVENING. THE NE WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN THE FL STRAITS WED AFTERNOON. BY THEN A WEAK HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALL WATERS W OF 90W. MAY SE A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE TX COAST WED NIGHT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN. A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE NW WATERS THIS MORNING WITH BUOY 41010 SHOWING A WSW-WNW WIND SHIFT AS IT PASSED. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE GA THIS AFTERNOON...OVERTAKE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH... WITH THE NEWLY MERGED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA ON SUN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...OVERTAKING THE MERGED FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG A LINE FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA MON NIGHT...WITH THE STRONG FRONT CLEANING UP THE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THEN REACHING ALONG A LINE FROM 31N58W TO 24N65W TO E HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT...STALLING FROM 28N55W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WED NIGHT...AND OF COURSE DRIFTING W AGAIN ON THU. WHILE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE STRENGTH OF THE POST FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THE CAA OVER THE ATLC. THUS I ADJUSTED THE AREA OF EXPECTED GALE CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO 79W. I WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF 30-40 KT W OF THE FRONT...AND 25-35 KT E OF FRONT...WITH THE AREA OF GALE CONDITIONS SHIFTING E OF 65W TUE NIGHT WHILE ALSO LIFTING N OF 31N IN THE WATERS BETWEEN 65W AND 55W. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM THE W ON TUE NIGHT THEY WILL NEVER VEER TO THE S...BUT BACK TO NW AND W OVER THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS WED...AND INCREASE TO 20 KT WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS E ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLC WATERS ON THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 25-30 KT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE TO THE S OF 17N E OF ABOUT 83W. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC ZONE WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INCREASING OVER THE NW INITIALLY AND LATER THE SW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TUE NIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT W WED BUT SEND ANOTHER ROUND OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS THROUGH THE TROPICAL WATERS N OF 16N ON WED AND THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 23N W OF 95W MON AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. AMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 79W AND ALSO N OF 27N E OF FRONT TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON