000 AGXX40 KNHC 211904 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EST WED DEC 21 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER NEAR 30N88W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THERE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A 1538 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS E OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND SW GULF. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED SOUTHERLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS IN THE E GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO THE NW-N AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WITH A REINFORCING SURGE QUICKLY PUSHING IT BACK OFF THE COAST THU MORNING...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE THU EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER AND STRONGER REINFORCING SURGE/FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THIS ONE THIS WEEKEND WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND IT IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W SAT NIGHT. THESE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE SUN... EXCEPT S OF 21N W OF 94W WHERE THEY ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT LATE SUN INTO MON IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AT THE TAIL END OF A HEALTHY NORTHERLY FETCH ZONE. HIGH PRES NE-E OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EACH OF THESE FRONTS BLOCKED FROM REACHING THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS... ECMWF AND UKMET WHICH ALL INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF SOLID 30 KT WINDS OVER THIS AREA. UNFORTUNATELY MORNING ASCAT PASSES JUST MISSED THIS PRESUMED AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THESE WINDS ARE BEING INDUCED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC BETWEEN HIGH PRES N-NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WITH NE SWELL TO 15 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SEAS TO 13 FT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH EARLY FRI. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE AREA OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO CONTRACT TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC...CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND NW CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FROM 12N55W TO 09N61W. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO THROUGH EARLY THU. SOUTHWEST N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30.5N64W WITH AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING TO EXTREME NE FLORIDA. EARLIER ASCAT PASSES INDICATED MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE OFFSHORE ZONE...EXCEPT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS IN THE NE PORTION NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. SEAS ARE UP TO 13 FT IN THE SE PORTION AS MEASURED BY AN NDBC BUOY NEAR 21N65W. THE AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE WATERS S OF 24N FRI THROUGH SAT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION FRI NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N84W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT MORNING. ONLY 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING SURGE BRINGING 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND IT LATE SAT N OF 30N. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL FROM NEAR 29N65W TO NE FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN WITH YET ANOTHER AND STRONGER REINFORCING SURGE ANTICIPATED LATE SUN THROUGH MON. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASING TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES NEAR THE FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS MAINLY 20-25 KT WINDS SO WILL REFRAIN FOR ANY GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORDING AT THIS TIME. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED...GMZ082 W OF 95W SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .GALE WARNING...AMZ082-084-086 FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY