000 AGXX40 KNHC 070706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST WED DEC 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 0302 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 TO 25 KT NLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SEAS TO 12 FT OVER THE SW GULF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS TEXAS AND N MEXICO WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE FRONT WHICH WILL INCREASE ITS EASTWARD MOTION TODAY. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS MORNING...THEN RAPIDLY SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE REINFORCING PUSH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TODAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THU AND FRI AS THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN...AND FRESHEN WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO DECREASE...AND WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TODAY AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH FRESHENING NLY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH FRI. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS WITH TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND E OF THE AREA THU AND FRI. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SHIFT BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL SHIFT S THEN WESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE FAR N PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WITH WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA...FRESH TRADEWINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY WHICH WILL DIMINISH THE TRADES. RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT BRIEFLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE EAST. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 95W. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL