000 AGXX40 KNHC 271856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 25N89W TO 18N93W WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY MON... MOVING E OF THE AREA BY MON EVENING. STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH NDBC BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF REPORTING 35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS OF 40-43 KT FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW WHICH HAVE BUILT SEAS TO UP TO 21 FT. A 1420 UTC JASON ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS TO 23 FT NEAR 22N95W AND A 1538 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A HANDFUL OF 45 KT WIND BARBS INDICATING THAT AT LEAST GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WERE LIKELY S OF 20N W OF 95W. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT S OF 25N W OF 93W THROUGH 06 UTC MON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW REINFORCING TROUGHS MAY ROTATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...THE STRONGEST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED ON FRI BRINGING A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NE WINDS TO THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10.5N77W IS RESULTING IN FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WEAKENING THE GRADIENT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT REACHING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W...THEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA EARLY TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED UP AGAINST THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA. COPIOUS MOISTURE IS SPREADING FROM SW TO NE FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. THIS TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LOW PRES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT WHILE IT SLOWLY ATTEMPTS TO DRIFT TO THE NE INTO THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGER OUTLIER OF THE MODELS WITH WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE AND SEAS UP TO 14 FT WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET REMAIN MORE CONSERVATIVE SOLUTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THESE SCENARIOS FOR THE TIME BEING. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS N OF THE AREA OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N72W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. FRESH NE-E WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS INDICATED BY 1354 AND 1534 UTC ASCAT PASSES ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN THE NW PORTION WHERE E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON MON AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE HIGH GETTING SHOVED EASTWARD. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY TUE EVENING WHILE WEAKENING...THEN FROM 31N69W TO THE SE BAHAMAS WED EVENING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. NEW HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH N-NE WINDS AROUND IT ACROSS THE BASIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING W OF 93W...GMZ082. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY