000 AGXX40 KNHC 251855 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRES OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AND WINDS ARE VEERING E-SE AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASCAT PASS AT 1616 UTC SHOWS FRESH E-SE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF SAT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. FORECAST WILL FAVOR GFS AND ENSEMBLES...WITH GALES EXPECTED FOR THE NW AND SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF BY LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND SAT. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER A WIDE SWATH OF OCEAN NW OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS 8-12 FT IN N SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES. WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL VEER E-NE AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS FURTHER E. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WILL BECOME S TO SW SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS W OF 70-75W. THIS IS ENHANCING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A DISTINCT FEATURE THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN THROUGH MON... BRINGING FRESH N-NW WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GFS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT BY LATE MON FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE WARNING W OF 94W SAT NIGHT. .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 94W EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL