000 AGXX40 KNHC 241830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST THU NOV 24 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 1456 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS FRESH NE WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE SW GULF. FRESH E WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF FRI AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E. SE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF SAT...AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE SAT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. FORECAST WILL FAVOR GFS AND ENSEMBLES...WITH GALES EXPECTED FOR THE NW AND SW GULF. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE GULF BY LATE SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AND FRI WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION LAGS ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF THE BAHAMAS. FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER WIDE SWATH OF OCEAN NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT IN N SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL START TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY FRI NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NE AND INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN. WINDS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WILL BECOME S TO SW SUN AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT PUSHING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST SUN AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING...AND FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS W OF 75W. THIS IS ENHANCING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH N OF PANAMA AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH. THE LOW WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS A DISTINCT FEATURE SAT THROUGH SUN. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SUN THROUGH MON...BRINGING FRESH N-NW WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GFS SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT BY LATE MON FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W SAT NIGHT. .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF 95W EARLY SUN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL