000 AGXX40 KNHC 230747 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EST WED NOV 23 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BUOY AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING E INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPRIVE THE FRONT OF SUPPORT OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATER TODAY...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY THU. THE STRONG N WINDS WILL FUNNEL DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE OVER THE EASTERN GULF...BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKENING OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. THE RIDGE SHIFTS E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH LATE FRI...ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SAT. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF FRONTS. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST LATE SAT INTO SUN. THE GFS REMAINS FASTER AND STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF AND UKMET...AND BRINGS STORM CONDITIONS THE SOUTHERN VERACRUZ COAST BY EARLY SUN. WILL HOLD OFF ON STORM FOR NOW BUT FAVOR THE UKMET AND INCREASE WINDS TO 40 KT FOR SUN. SW N ATLC N OF 19N W OF 55W... A 0248 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED WINDS N OF 29N W OF 77W STARTING TO VEER SW AND INCREASE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES...EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND A 0248 UTC JASON 1 ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS E OF THE BAHAMAS WERE DIMINISHING BELOW 8 FT...AS PERSISTENT NE SWELL DECAYS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...THEN SLOW AND WEAKEN FROM 26N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY FRI MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH N TO NE WINDS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THU AND FRI. SEAS BUILD 8 TO 12 FT IN NE SWELL NE OF THE BAHAMAS BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL THROUGH SAT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGE IN PLACE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA THROUGH SUN AND FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW S OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THERE HAD BEEN SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CONCERNING THE PARTICULAR LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF A LOW PRES AREA S OF BERMUDA. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...IT APPEARS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE WELL E OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... LATEST DATA SHOW WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF. BUOYS AND ALTIMETER DATA INDICATE PERSISTENT NE SWELL FROM THE ATLC IS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH PASSAGES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS START TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE THU...HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NORTHERN FLOW WILL FUNNEL S DOWN THE NICARAGUAN COAST...AND THIS MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THE GFS HINTS OF A LOW FORMING N OF PANAMA EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROF BY LATE FRI...BUT IT APPEARS FAIRLY ELONGATED. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS CONCERNING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY SAT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SW GULF W OF 95W LATE SAT AND SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN