000 AGXX40 KNHC 220731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STALLED FRONT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL START TO MOVE LATER TODAY THROUGH SE TEXAS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BUOYS AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 0312 UTC SHOW 15 TO 20 KT SE FLOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO 25N95W TO VERACRUZ MEXICO BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH 20 TO 25 KT WINDS FUNNELING S DOWN THE MEXICAN COAST. MEANWHILE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WED AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH COMES IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SHIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLC BY THU. RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL DEPRIVE THE FRONT OF SUPPORT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...BUT WILL ALLOW THE MAIN THRUST OF THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THU...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND REACH S FLORIDA BY EARLY THU...AND INTO THE STRAITS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY FRI. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 29N51W TO 22N53W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 31N78W IS MAINTAINING 15 TO 20 KT NE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO E OF BERMUDA. BUOYS AND ALTIMETER PASSES SHOW SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT S OF 25N...IN NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS NE...AND THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE BETWEEN N FLORIDA AND BERMUDA. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF N FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND EARLY WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BY LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE THU. THE UKMET IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 29N65W BY LATE FRI...LIFTING TO THE NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING FRESH NE TO E WINDS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0310 UTC...INCLUDING 20 TO 25 KT WINDS S OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND NE SWELL WILL DECAY TO LESS THE 8 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 18N BY FRI...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN