000 AGXX40 KNHC 191856 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE SHIFTING E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE/EARLY WED. THIS WILL MAINTAIN FRESH E TRADES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SHOW 3 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE GULF. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE/EARLY WED...AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WED EVENING. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL W OF THE FRONT. SW N ATLC FROM 19N TO 31N W OF 55W... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 26N74W. LATEST ASCAT...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 11 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES E OF THE AREA ALONG ROUGHLY 55W...WITH THE LATEST ASCAT PASS INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE AREA. THE GRADIENT WILL ALSO BE TIGHT BETWEEN THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE...MOVING N TO NE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS OVER THE FAR E PART OF THE AREA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT IN THE NE SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BY MID WEEK AS THE LOW PRES DRIFTS FURTHER TO THE NE INTO THE CENTRAL N ATLC. SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N W OF 55W...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA...AND LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD...AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL