000 AGXX40 KNHC 081959 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT TUE NOV 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE GULF SW TO NEAR 24N89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRESENT OVER THE GULF. BUOYS OBSERVATIONS OVER THE AREA SHOW GENERALLY E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ...EXCEPT ON THE E SIDE SIDE OF THE RIDGE E OF ABOUT 85W WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT...AND HIGHER SPEEDS OF 20 KT. THE BUOYS ALSO REVEAL THAT SEAS ARE 3-5 FT ACROSS THE GULF...EXCEPT S OF 24N E OF 88W WHERE SEAS ARE AT TIMES UP TO 6 FT UNDER THE STEADY NE 20 KT WIND. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS FORCING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER EASTERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THAT TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE PRECEDED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG IT. MUCH LIKE RECENT COLD FRONTAL EPISODES...THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE E TO ALONG A PSN FROM SE LOUISIANA TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WED...FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N88W TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THU EVENING...AND FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY FRI BEFORE PUSHING SE OF THE GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS...POSSIBLY UP TO 40 KT AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 15 FT ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SW GULF S OF ABOUT 21N ON THU BEFORE DIMINISHING ON FRI AND SAT AS HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY REACH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WED NIGHT S OF 21N BEFORE THE ONSET OF MORE SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS ARRIVES THU. ELSEWHERE NW OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME N AT 20-30 KT ON WED AND WED NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 OR 9 FT ...EXCEPT TO 16 FT THU IN THE SW ZONE BEFORE SUBSIDING INTO FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A GALE CENTER NOW TROPICAL STORM SEAN NEAR 27.7N 69.5W AT 1800 UTC OR ABOUT 425 NM SW OF BERMUDA WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION. ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1500 UTC. THE PERSISTENT VERY STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO ITS N BETWEEN SEAN AND STRONG HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO RESULT IN A VERY LARGE FETCH AREA OF NE 20-30 KT WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 24N WITH VERY LARGE SEAS OF UP TO 18 FT ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE 12 FT SEA RADII OF SEAN. BUOY 41047 AT 27.5N72W HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 16 FT...BUOY 41010 29N78.5W HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 14 FT...BUOY 41048 N OF AREA AT 32N69.7W HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 14 FT. TO THE S OF SEAN...BUOY 41046 AT 23.8N68.3W HAS COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FT IN A N SWELL. THE 1500 UTC FORECASTS SEAN TO ONLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 27.8N 69.7W EARLY TONIGHT...TO 28.2N 70.1W BY WED MORNING...THEN TO 29.2N 70.4W EARLY WED NIGHT...TO NEAR 30.2N 70.4W THU MORNING...AND TURN NE TO N OF AREA NEAR 33.5N 66.0W BY FRI MORNING AS A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N67W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA BY SAT AFTERNOON...AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN WITH NE WINDS OF 20 KT DIMINISHING FROM W TO E ACROSS THE AREA. THE LINGERING ISSUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE RESIDUAL LARGE SEAS ATTRIBUTED TO THE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS AS THESE SWELLS WILL BE VERY SLOW IN SUBSIDING. IN ADDITION...NW-N SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT THROUGH EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN TILL ABOUT EARLY WED BEFORE SUBSIDING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1530 SHOWED LIGHT NE WINDS OF 10 KT BETWEEN 70W-75W...AND HIGHER WINDS OF 15-20 KT SW OF CUBA BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 85W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH 11N65W TO 16N65W MOVING W AT 13 KT. NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PRESENT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SE-S WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 15N...AND E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE S OF 16N. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 2-4 FT OVER MOST OF THE ZONES...EXCEPT 6-8 FT IN A N SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND 3-5 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W. HIGH PRES FROM THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT SEAN LIFTS NNE...AND A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY ON FRI...AND REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO GULF OF HONDURASSAT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER ON SAT INTO SUN AS WESTERN ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS E AND SE. N SWELLS OF 8 FT THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN ATLC EXPOSED PASSAGES WILL SUBSIDE TO 6 FT BY EARLY WED. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU S OF 21N W OF 94W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 75W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE