000 AGXX40 KNHC 311836 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM FORT MYERS FL TO YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD TUE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AS HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH REINFORCING COOL AIR SURGES INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT AND 6 FT OR LESS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN SE HALF OF THE GULF TUE BEHIND THE FRONT. A HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND WED TO INDUCE MODERATE TO FRESH ELY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THU...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO THU NIGHT...AND FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N61W TO 27N73W TO 28N81W. WRN PART OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY N AS WARM FRONT THIS EVENING. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY NE TONIGHT...EXITING THE AREA TUE MORNING. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL LIFT N...WHILE A FRONTAL TROUGH TRAILS S INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE DEVELOPING LOW AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS AROUND THE LOW WILL BE 20-25 KT WITH WINDS TO 30 KT LIKELY N OF 28N. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FROM 31N76W TO 27N80W TUE MORNING...AND MOVE SE FROM 31N65W TO NW CUBA BY WED MORNING. LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 65W/66W WED MORNING AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THU BEFORE DRIFTING SE FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W... WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NNW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASCAT PASS AT 1454 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT W TO SW WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 KT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED FROM MODEL CONSENSUS. EXPECT THE LOW IN SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT SLOWLY W TOWARD NICARAGUA THROUGH WED AND WEAKEN...THEN DISSIPATE THU. TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TUE... THEN WINDS SHIFT NE AS HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUILDS SOUTHWARD...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE ERN AND SW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W ACROSS NORTHERN PART OF TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TUE...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY N OF PUERTO RICO WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W OVER S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS INTO VENEZUELA THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL