000
AGXX40 KNHC 301830
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
FRESH NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GULF WHILE SEAS CONTINUE 
TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBS 
SHOW WINDS AND SEAS STEADILY DECLINING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT 
BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. EXPECT TREND TO 
CONTINUE THROUGH MON. BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE GULF MON AND 
TUE WILL INCREASE NE WINDS ACROSS SE GULF AND PUSH THE FRONT OUT 
OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST THU.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS A STATIONARY FRONT. EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT UP TO 300 NM N OF THE BOUNDARY 
BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 
TO 18 HOURS. SCATTEROMETER SHOWS FRESH TO STRONG N-NE WINDS N OF 
THE FRONT WHICH IS BUILDING SEAS TO 9-10 FT OVER NW PORTION THIS 
AFTERNOON. EXPECT NORTHERN PART OF THE TO PUSH FURTHER E TONIGHT 
WHILE SOUTHERN PART REMAINS ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. 
THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD MON AS AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS 
NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THIS LOW...TRACKING IT RAPIDLY NE OUT OF THE TROPICS BY TUE.
A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST WILL DEEPEN THE
LOW AS IT TRACKS NE...WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND THE OLD 
BOUNDARY TO INTENSIFY NE WINDS TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS TO 8-10 FT.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 
SCATTEROMETER PASS TODAY SHOWED WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT 
AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE MAX SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE 6 
TO 7 FT. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH FURTHER THROUGH THU 
AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
ALONG 68W TUE NIGHT AND WED DISRUPT HIGH PRES NORMALLY N OF THE 
BASIN. SCATTEROMETER ALSO SHOWS WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE 
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W. GFS MODEL SHOWS THE LOW STAYING NEARLY 
STATIONARY THROUGH TUE...THEN DRIFTING W INTO NICARAGUA WITHOUT 
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL MOVE 
W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND MON.... 
WHILE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF 16N MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC W 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. A BROAD 
WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KT ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS E OF 
TROUGH AXIS IN EXCESS OF 12 FT. WIND AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AS 
THIS FEATURE REACHES THE SE N ATLC WATERS TUE NIGHT...BUT WILL 
STILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG NELY WIND SWELL AT 10-11 SECS.  

WARNINGS...

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

.SW N ATLC...
.NONE.
    
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER MUNDELL