000 AGXX40 KNHC 291839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MARCH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND WILL EXTEND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BY SUNDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO STALL AS IT REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH MON. BUILDING HIGH PRES AND A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE AREA TUE. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WERE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N88W. GFS AND WW3 MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NNW WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 30-35 KT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR SW GULF...S OF 21N W OF 95W. BUT ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT PEAK WINDS AT 25-30 KT SO HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE GALE WARNING FOR THIS PARTICULAR HIGH WIND EVENT BECAUSE OF SHORT DURATION AND LACK OF CONSENSUS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXPECT WINDS TO BRIEFLY PEAK AT NEAR-GALE FORCE LATER TODAY BUT HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR SHORE S OF 21N IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 14-15 FT IN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING FROM COMBINED N WIND WAVES AND N TO NE SWELL. BUOY 42055 IN SW GULF NEAR 22N94W SHOWS COMBINED SEAS TO 12 FT TODAY...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WW FORECAST GUIDANCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MON AND TUE AS FRONT WEAKENS AND STALLS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT IN NW PORTION OFF NE FLORIDA COAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N74W TO 26N80W. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 31N65W TO S FLORIDA SUN AND MON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP MON ALONG 79W. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS TROUGH MON NIGHT WHILE A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR TUE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AT SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH ALONG 81W...AND MOVE SLOWLY W TOWARD THE COAST OF NICARAGUA THROUGH WED. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN NIGHT AND MON.... WHILE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL