000 AGXX40 KNHC 271910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT SE-S WINDS W OF 90W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 95W WHERE S WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT. WINDS E OF 90W ARE E IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 7-10 KT EXCEPT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE NE PART AND STRONGER E WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION DUE TO A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM RINA IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 115 NM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS ALSO REVEAL SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT...EXCEPT FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED TO 4-6 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS IN THE S FLOW OF 15-20 KT...AND 4-7 FT IN THE FAR SE PORTION WHERE THE TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXISTS. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RATHER WEAK HIGH PRES COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF E OF 90W. NEAR FUTURE CHANGES COMING INTO PLAY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS TONIGHT...AND IN TROPICAL STORM RINA CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM RINA. A STRONG SURGE OF COLD...DENSE STABLE AIR. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN NW-N WINDS OF 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM WITH STILL A SWATH OF NE 20 KT COVERING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF ZONES SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST OF THE WIND RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT (30 KT) IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY JUST OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST...AND IN THE FAR SE GULF ZONE FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO POSSIBLY 12 FT AS ADVERTISED BY SOME OF THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE MODELS. TROPICAL STORM RINA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF COZUMEL MEXICO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 87.2W EARLY TONIGHT...THEN JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21.1N 87.2W BY FRI MORNING BEFORE TURNING NE TO NEAR 21.6N 86.7W EARLY FRI EVENING...TO 21.4N 86.2W EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION NEAR 21.0N 86.0W BY EARLY SUN AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MON. IMPACTS WILL ON THE AREA ARE EXPECTED S OF ABOUT 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W THROUGH SAT...OR MAY EVEN BE SHORTER THAN THROUGH SAT IF RINA WEAKENS SOONER AS IT TRACKS BACK S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AS A REMNANT LOW MON AND TUE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN RINA AND HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL ALLOW FOR THE SWATH OF NE 20 KT TO LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS RIDGE ALONG 31N TO BR THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN PORTION S OF ABOUT 26N...SE-S WINDS OF 10 KT N OF 26N W OF 75W AND NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. A NARROW SWATH OF SPORADIC E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IS EVIDENT S OF 23N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALED SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-6 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 2-4 FT N OF 27N W OF 77W AND 6-9 FT IN A N SWELL N OF 26N E OF 68W. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT EASTWARD THROUGH FRI NIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO RACE EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SE U.S. ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY SAT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO WESTERN CUBA SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. INDICATIONS...BASED ON LATEST MODEL TRENDS...ARE THAT THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK N MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION NEAR FLORIDA AND LIFTS N PULLING THE FRONT TO THE N. WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL MATERIALIZE BEHIND THE FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN SHIFT TO E-SE THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW FORMS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AND TRACKS NE. THIS SCENARIO IMPLIES A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT TO PINCH OFF OVER THE NW WATERS MON AND TUE WITH A STRONG ELY WIND COMPONENT AND FETCH LEADING TO SEAS TO POSSIBLY BUILD TO 8-10 FT. ONCE THE LOW TRACKS NE LATER MON AND TUE...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS MON...AND REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY TUE WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF NLY WINDS 20 KT FILTERING IN BEHIND AND S-SW 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF ABOUT 28N WITH SEAS THERE UP TO 8 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM RINA CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 NM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. RINA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 20.0N 87.2W EARLY TONIGHT...THEN JUST INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21.1N 87.2W BY FRI MORNING BEFORE TURNING NE TO NEAR 21.6N 86.7W EARLY FRI EVENING...TO 21.4N 86.2W EARLY SAT...THEN WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION NEAR 21.0N 86.0W BY EARLY SUN AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MON INTO TUE. RINA MAY EVEN WEAKEN SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECAST. NW WINDS OF 20 KT WILL SPILL SE INTO THE NW ZONE ON THE W SIDE OF THE REMNANT LOW OF RINA MON AND TUE. ELSEWHERE...NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN THEN NW PORTION OF THE SW ZONE..AND IN THE SRN PORTION OF THE NW ZONE. LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE BEHIND A TROUGH ALONG 80W N OF 13N. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALSO MIGRATE WNW. AN AREA OF E 20 KT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING HINTED AT A POSSIBLE WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR 12N81W. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY HINTING AT LOW PRES TO BE IN THE THAT GENERAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE FROM 14N-17N BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE ENTIRE ZONE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC RIDGING AND A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES THE ZONE MATERIALIZES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 23N E OF 88W... .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N W OF 85W... .SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE