000 AGXX40 KNHC 221749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES OVER THE SE U.S. WILL MAINTAIN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH MON WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE SE GULF MON NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE...THEN E OF THE AREA BY TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TUE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA THEN DECREASE WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LOW PRES IN THE THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N82W IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE NWD WHILE DEEPENING. THERE IS POSSIBILLITY THAT THE LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS STATED ABOVE THE GFS IS NOWHERE NEAR AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS RUNS AND MOVES IT TO THE W NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER BY TUE. A TROUGH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER DGS