000 AGXX40 KNHC 171912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1003 MB LOW PRES AREA OFF THE NE COAST OF YUCATAN NEAR 23N87W CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER IN THE GULF THIS MORNING. SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE APPROACHING GALE FORCE. THE LOW MAY DEEPEN AND BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT SHIFTS NE TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA THROUGH TUE. CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF TUE MORNING AND SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WHETHER OR NOT THE LOW DEEPENS INTO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...STRONG CONVECTION AND RELATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 14 FT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WED. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY OF COOLER AIRMASS MOVING OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM SEAS...THE STRONG GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDING OFF THE CONTINENT WILL EFFICIENTLY MIX TO THE SURFACE IN MOST AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT...INCLUDING WINDS REACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ BY WED MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH SE TO S FLOW MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 81W...ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003 MB LOW PRES AREA OFF THE NE COAST OF YUCATAN NEAR 23N87W. CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARE ALSO NOTED IN THIS AREA...MAINLY WITHIN AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDSAT AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW AN AREA OF FRESH SW FLOW OFF NICARAGUA...ASSOCIATE WITH BROAD LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W/64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS SHOWING VERY LITTLE DEFINITION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR IN THE WIND FIELD. THIS WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT BY MID WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW PRES SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF. WINDS SHIFT NW TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS A TRAILING TROUGH DIGS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND GULF OF HONDURAS. THE MAIN COLD FRONT FOLLOWS THE TROUGH BY LATE WED...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW AND N SEAS TO 8 FT. THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH LATE FRI. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH E FLOW FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN LOW PRES OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH PRES OVER GEORGIA. WINDS VEER S TO SW AND INCREASE THROUGH TUE...AS THE LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHIFT NE THROUGH N CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH LATE TUE. THE S TO SW WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE N OF 28N W OF 76W BY TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW THE LOW PRES...EMERGING OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WED. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THEN STALL FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL CUBA. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084 AND GMZ086...GALE WARNING FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING S OF 21N W OF 95W EARLY WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...GALE WARNING TUE NIGHT AND WED N OF 28N... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN