000 AGXX40 KNHC 150730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 329 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO 23N93W TO 11N94W. A WINDSAT PASS FROM 2326 UTC ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION FROM THAT TIME SHOWED 20 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF...BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH MON. NE TO E WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF SUN AND MON AS THE LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BUILDING HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ...REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVER PRIMARILY THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF INTO TUE AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF TUE AFTERNOON...EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO BY WED AFTERNOON. THE GFS REMAINS THE STRONGEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA OF THE SW GULF WED. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE PERSISTENT LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND STRONGER HIGHER PRES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST GOOD COOL AIRMASS OF THE SEASON TO PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH WATER TEMPERATURES STILL FAIRLY WARM. THE RESULTING INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW THE ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. THUS GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PLAUSIBLE AT LEAST FOR THE AREA OFF VERACRUZ DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 27N78W...THEN STATIONARY TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL SAG A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE...THEN STALL BY LATE SUN FROM 31N66W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NE TO E TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG 30N. WINDS DIMINISH MON AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE NE. S TO SW WINDS INCREASE OVER WATERS N OF 25N LATE TUE INTO WED...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS UP TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...AS IT PUSHES E AND REACHES FROM 31N76W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... REPORTS FROM BUOY 42057 AND NOAA SHIP MCARTHUR II IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE SHOWING E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...CONFIRMING WINDSAT REPORTS FROM 2320 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE W OF 80W. THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AREA NOTED ELSEWHERE. THERE ARE MINOR DISPARITIES BETWEEN GLOBAL MODELS ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE BROAD LOW...BUT THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS NEARLY STATIONARY. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN