000 AGXX40 KNHC 251907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO 23N87W. LATEST NE GULF BUOY REPORTS SHOW VARIABLE 5-1O KT WINDS N OF THE TROUGH...WHILE S-SW WINDS OF 10 KT ARE EVIDENT SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS N OF 25N W OF 94W WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INDUCING ONSHORE FLOW CONSISTING OF S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. SEAS IN THAT PORTION OF THE GULF HAVE BUILD TO 3-5 FT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUE...AND 1-2 FT WED THROUGH FRI. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 27N MON THROUGH FRI WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER TO SET UP OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N78W S TO 25N78W...AND THEN SE TO 21N77W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW NE-E 15 KT WINDS S AND SE OF THE RIDGE...S TO SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT SW OF THE RIDGE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 4-6 FT N OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 6-8 FT IN N SWELL S OF 22N E OF BAHAMAS...TO LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 78W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LIFT N OF THE AREA MON. RECENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA IS SE OF THE AREA IN THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 18.4N 60.6W AT 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND POSSIBLY REGAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 19N62W LATE TONIGHT...AND TO NEAR 20N64W MON AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THEY MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK. WITH NOW A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SE PORTION...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE REGULAR NOAA WAVEWATCH 3 GUIDANCE WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE FOR SEAS IN THE FAR SE PORTION THROUGH MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE MAIN FEATURE IS NOW RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEAR IN THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 18N61W MOVING NW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BACK INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY MOVE TO JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO BY MON AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS LAGS BEHIND OPHELIA FROM 16N TO 21N WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SEAS OF 7-10 FT JUST OVER THE FAR NW TROPICAL N ATLC. IN ADDITION...BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND 41044 AT 22N59W ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 7 OR 8 FT. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 41101 AT 15N56W AND BUOY 41040 AT 14N53W SHOW S-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 7 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA NEAR 43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WILL TO NEAR 51W TUE MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED MORNING AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT OF LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE ZONES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N W OF 60W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 251907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT SUN SEP 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N83W TO 23N87W. LATEST NE GULF BUOY REPORTS SHOW VARIABLE 5-1O KT WINDS N OF THE TROUGH...WHILE S-SW WINDS OF 10 KT ARE EVIDENT SE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. A WEAK PRES PATTERN REMAINS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH SEAS OF 1-2 FT OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR WESTERN WATERS N OF 25N W OF 94W WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY LOW PRES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS INDUCING ONSHORE FLOW CONSISTING OF S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT. AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THESE WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. SEAS IN THAT PORTION OF THE GULF HAVE BUILD TO 3-5 FT...BUT WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT TUE...AND 1-2 FT WED THROUGH FRI. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 27N MON THROUGH FRI WITH A WEAK HIGH CENTER TO SET UP OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N78W S TO 25N78W...AND THEN SE TO 21N77W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A NEARLY STATIONARY 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE AREA SHOW NE-E 15 KT WINDS S AND SE OF THE RIDGE...S TO SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT SW OF THE RIDGE AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION TO THE NW OF THE RIDGE. SEAS RANGE FROM 4-6 FT N OF 22N E OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 6-8 FT IN N SWELL S OF 22N E OF BAHAMAS...TO LOWER SEAS OF 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS...AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 78W. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED LIFT N OF THE AREA MON. RECENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA IS SE OF THE AREA IN THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 18.4N 60.6W AT 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND POSSIBLY REGAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 19N62W LATE TONIGHT...AND TO NEAR 20N64W MON AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WILL BE IMPACTED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THEY MAY NOT LAST TOO LONG AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK. WITH NOW A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SE PORTION...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE REGULAR NOAA WAVEWATCH 3 GUIDANCE WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE FOR SEAS IN THE FAR SE PORTION THROUGH MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE MAIN FEATURE IS NOW RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA NEAR IN THE NW PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 18N61W MOVING NW AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BACK INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM JUST NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY MOVE TO JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO BY MON AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS LAGS BEHIND OPHELIA FROM 16N TO 21N WITH GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED SEAS OF 7-10 FT JUST OVER THE FAR NW TROPICAL N ATLC. IN ADDITION...BUOYS 41043 AT 21N65W AND 41044 AT 22N59W ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEAS OF 9 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE SWELLS WILL LINGER OVER THE NW PORTION THROUGH EARLY MON EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 7 OR 8 FT. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 41101 AT 15N56W AND BUOY 41040 AT 14N53W SHOW S-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 7 FT IN A N SWELL. THESE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MON MORNING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA NEAR 43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT WILL TO NEAR 51W TUE MORNING...AND ENTER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED MORNING AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT OF LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH THE WAVE AS IT ENTERS THE ZONES. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N W OF 60W... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE