000 AGXX40 KNHC 081907 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TWO FEATURES ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ON MAJOR ...AND ONE NOT SO. THE FIRST ONE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SARASOTA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE SECOND IS TROPICAL STORM NATE LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 92.4W...OR 200 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO AT 1800 UTC DRIFTING SE WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1000 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT NATE WILL BE A LONG LASTING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN THROUGH DAY 5 OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NATE CONTINUES TO LIE UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER W CENTRAL MEXICO. LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS NATE TO SLOWLY MOVE TO NEAR 20.5N 92.2W TONIGHT...THEN TURN NW AND MOVE TO 21.1N 92.2W FRI MORNING...TO 21.9N 92.7W FRI NIGHT...AND INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE AS IT REACHES 22.5N 93.2W EARLY SAT MORNING...TO 23.1N 93.8W EARLY SUN MORNING AND TO 23.6N 94.4W BY MON MORNING AND TO NEAR 24.0N 95.0W BY TUE MORNING. AS NATE STRENGTHENS WITH HIGH PRES TO ITS W AND NW EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST INFORMATION FROM NHC ON NATE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 68W N OF 15N IS MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE WAVE MOVING SW. THE WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA SAT AND SUN. AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 11 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED NE 20 KT WINDS W OF THE WAVE TO ABOUT 72W. MAJOR UPCOMING CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL BE ATTRIBUTE TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 13.0N 51.2W 1005 MB AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING MOVING W AT 9 KT...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. MARIA IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TO 13.0N 54.0W TONIGHT...TO 13.8N 57.3W FRI MORNING...TO 14.5N 60.5W FRI NIGHT...NW TO 16.0N 63.O SAT MORNING BEFORE LIFTING NW OF THE AREA LATE SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FAR EASTERN WATERS MON...AND REACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TUE. NE 15 KT WINDS AHEAD OF IT WILL SHIFT TO SE 15-20 KT BEHIND IT ON TUE N OF ABOUT 14N. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TRADES WILL EXIST WITH RELATIVELY LOW SEAS S OF 14N...WHILE SEAS SHOULD BUILD ONCE AGAIN WITH REGARDS TO THE WAVE TO AROUND THE RANGE OF 5-8 FT N OF 14N MON AND TUE. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HURRICANE KATIA CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1104 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED S-SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT COVERING THE PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE N OF 27N AND E OF 74W. SEAS THERE ARE 9-14 FT. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA AS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 25N. THE WINDS AND SEAS N OF 27N E OF 74W WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO ALONG 27N FRI NIGHT...THEN LIFT N TO ALONG 30N SAT AND SUN AND TO N OF THE AREA MON. TROPICAL STORM MARIA CURRENTLY IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW INTO THE FAR SE PORTION LATE SAT NIGHT...TO 19.5N 67.0W EARLY SUN AND TO 22.5N 72.0W BY EARLY MON AND TO NEAR 25.0N 75.0W BY TUE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 68W S OF 24N IS MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS FRI AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT POSSIBLY APPROACHES ANDROS ISLAND AND THE VICINITY OF S FLORIDA LATE SAT INTO SUN WITH LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 13N-17N. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED S OF 26N E OF 74W SAT THROUGH MON AND FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W TUE . FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE