000 AGXX40 KNHC 080715 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. NATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NE TODAY BEFORE TURNING NW LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH FRI EVENING BEFORE TAKING A MORE W TURN TOWARD MEXICO SUN INTO MON. THIS TRACK IS CONSIDERABLY MORE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF THAN THE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY 00Z GFS. THE UKMET GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE ECMWF FORECAST THROUGH SAT...BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM SW AND CARRIES THE SYSTEM INLAND MORE QUICKLY. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED FOR THE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W...THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL LIFT NW IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE KATIA...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRI AND MOVING N OF THE CARIBBEAN BY FRI NIGHT. THE 0040 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF 18N WITH BUOY 41044 REPORTING 9 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC. THE 00Z GFS AND MWW3 APPEAR TO BE WELL INITIALIZED AND WILL BE USED FOR ITS FORECAST. T.S. MARIA WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY FRI MORNING. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY CLOSER EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND THE ECMWF CLOSER AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT NIGHT. ASIDE FROM T.S. MARIA...THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN REASONABLY QUIET. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI THAT DRIFT W AND WILL NOT RAISE WINDS OR SEAS TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE BY MON. THE MODELS ARE RELATIVELY SUBDUED WITH THIS FEATURE. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... HURRICANE KATIA WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY N OF 31N TODAY. THE GFS FORECAST LOOKS FINE FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS AS IT LIFTS N OF THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO SE WATERS TODAY. THE 0040 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS FRESH WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE N OF 18N WITH BUOY 41044 REPORTING 9 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC. THE 00Z GFS AND MWW3 APPEAR TO BE WELL INITIALIZED AND WILL BE USED FOR ITS FORECAST. T.S. MARIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SE WATERS OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE GFS TO ITS N AND THE ECMWF CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND THEN DIVERGES TO THE S. THE STRONGER 55 KT GFS SOLUTION IS CLOSEST TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY OF 60 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND THE MWW3 WILL BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE OFFICIAL TRACK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 56W FROM 14N TO 17N. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 28N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER