000 AGXX40 KNHC 070708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT SEP 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON DEVELOPING THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW GULF. THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY THU NIGHT AS THE 00Z GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM FARTHER S THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY SAT EVENING...THE 00Z GFS IS NEAR 21N94W WITH THE OTHER MODELS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER E AND CONSIDERABLY FARTHER N. THE POINTS PROVIDED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL ARE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE SUN MORNING POSITION EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 23.5N 92.0W. WILL TRY TO LEAN THE FORECAST TOWARD THE UKMET SOLN WHICH IS MORE NE AND WEAKER THAN THE GFS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE HAS FRESH WINDS BEHIND IT ACCORDING TO THE 0100 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 9 FT SEAS ACCORDING TO SHIP PENR NEAR 19.5N 54.5W AT 0600 UTC. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE REASONABLY WELL INITIALIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WED NIGHT. T.D. FOURTEEN MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL STORM ACCORDING TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ITS TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE 00Z NOGAPS SOLUTION THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WITH THE 00Z GFS TOO FAST AND THE OTHER MODELS GENERALLY TOO FAR S. THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SUN. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... THE 00Z GFS IS THE CLOSEST OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOR KATIA S OF 31N. ITS SOLUTION SHOULD BE FINE FOR THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM. MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO PLAY BY THE WEEKEND AS T.D. FOURTEEN APPROACHES THE SE PORTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM 0300Z HAS THE SYSTEM NEAR 21.0N 67.5W BY SUN EVENING. THIS IS SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE 00Z GFS TRACK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN THE GFS THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND IS FARTHER SW BY DAY 5. WITH THE GFS CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...USED ITS FORECAST AS A BASE AND ADJUSTED TOWARD A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC... .NONE. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 26N E OF 72W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER