000 AGXX40 KNHC 301845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF WATERS. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE N GULF HAS DISSIPATED. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN LIES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...SEE MORE IN CARIBBEAN SECTION BELOW...WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS TOMORROW...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS AN INDICATION OF A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. THE MAJOR UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND THE LOW FORMATION...AND HOW STRONG THE LOW WILL BE. SW ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THIS RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ENABLING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE N PART OF THE AREA WED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ASIDE FROM A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION THIS COLD FRONT WILL NOT BRING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE TO WINDS OR SEAS. LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST...WE ARE MONITORING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 22N W OF 55W... CONTINUED ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. AS AN ASIDE...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OVER THE CARIBBEAN CAN BE FAVORABLE TO TROPICAL WAVE FORMATION AND GROWTH. THIS SCENARIO IS AN EXAMPLE OF THIS FAVORABLE SCENARIO. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THIS AREA. THE TRADEWINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE IN THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO RETREAT EASTWARD. WE ARE MONITORING THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. KATIA IS PRESENTLY FORECAST TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT TRACK OF KATIA IS BRINGING THE STORM CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM KATIA. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 15N E OF 60W SAT... SW N ATLC... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AL