000 AGXX40 KNHC 071854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD TONIGHT. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT HAS BEEN INHIBITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND LIMITED OTHER MARINE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATING ONLY 5-10 KT OF WIND EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W WITH WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N84W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS LOW TO THE NW-N EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FROM A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W TO A 1015 MB HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N93W. THIS RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE BECOMING ORIENTED MORE E TO W ALONG 28N/29N BY SUN INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72N WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 14N IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE NE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 20N62W THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 15N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE AXIS WILL REACH HISPANIOLA SAT...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI...MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT...THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. A SURGE OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH/WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN. SEAS UP TO 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... THE NORTHERN TIP OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE FAR NW PORTION REACHING FROM 30N80W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING SW INTO THE GULF AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 77W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA WILL CLIP THE SE PORTION FRI INTO SAT...THEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND MON. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW-W TO NEAR 29N78W. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS COVER THE WATERS E OF 77W WITH 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS S OF 23N AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 29N SAT THROUGH MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT N OF 22N/23N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY 000 AGXX40 KNHC 071854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N94W WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD TONIGHT. STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT HAS BEEN INHIBITING ANY ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AND LIMITED OTHER MARINE IMPACTS OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATING ONLY 5-10 KT OF WIND EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 24N85W WITH WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N84W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND IN THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE CARRIES THIS LOW TO THE NW-N EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND NEAR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS LOW HAS A LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF FROM A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N89W TO A 1015 MB HIGH OVER MEXICO NEAR 19N93W. THIS RIDGING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE BECOMING ORIENTED MORE E TO W ALONG 28N/29N BY SUN INTO MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72N WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 14N IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH PRODUCING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE NE EXTENDING FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 20N62W THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 15N65W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120-180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE AXIS WILL REACH HISPANIOLA SAT...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI...MOVING INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT...THEN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON. A SURGE OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING NE OF THE AREA AND THE TROUGH/WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASIN. SEAS UP TO 11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST WINDS. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... THE NORTHERN TIP OF A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS IN THE FAR NW PORTION REACHING FROM 30N80W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING SW INTO THE GULF AS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS DOMINATE THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 77W. THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA WILL CLIP THE SE PORTION FRI INTO SAT...THEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN AND MON. RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW-W TO NEAR 29N78W. 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS COVER THE WATERS E OF 77W WITH 15-20 KT E-SE WINDS S OF 23N AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 29N SAT THROUGH MON WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT N OF 22N/23N INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY