000 AGXX40 KNHC 070655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 SW N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 79W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. TONIGHT AND FRI...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING W ALONG 31W...RESULTING IN FRESH S-SW WINDS OVER NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 75W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI...REACHING 80W SUN AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN NIGHT. FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 24N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W TO 60W S OF 20N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE WEAK TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT...REACHING 80W AROUND SUN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 12N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. GULF OF MEXICO... SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W IS HELPING SUPPRESS CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF. HOWEVER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 070655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 SW N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 79W IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. TONIGHT AND FRI...STRENGTHENING THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE BUILDING W ALONG 31W...RESULTING IN FRESH S-SW WINDS OVER NW WATERS FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF 75W THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH FRI...REACHING 80W SUN AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUN NIGHT. FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL BE FOUND E OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 24N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SURGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN THE SE CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W TO 60W S OF 20N IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THE WEAK TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AND BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE E CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY WHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH SAT...REACHING 80W AROUND SUN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE INTENSE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W S OF 12N WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. GULF OF MEXICO... SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N91W IS HELPING SUPPRESS CLOUDS AND CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GULF. HOWEVER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI BEFORE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL