000 AGXX40 KNHC 041858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 SW N ATLC... EARLY PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 26N72W TO 20N75W...WHILE A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W FROM IT. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED NICELY ON THE 1415 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT S OF 25N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 72W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS...IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT...ARE OBSERVED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CARRYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IN A NW MOTION TO ACROSS THE REST OF THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUE...THEN NW TO ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST ON WED AND THU BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORES FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND WITH FORECAST SCENARIO DISCUSSED IN THE HPC/NHC MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THAT WILL BE MADE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS E OF THE TROUGH IS TO GO WITH THE LOWER RANGE OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THEN NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MENTION THE WORDING OF "HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTMS" MAINLY TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...I DON'T EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE MAP HAS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED OVER THE MUCH OF THE NW AND N SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER LEVEL MOIST SW FLOW TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A PARTIAL 1418 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W AS ALSO SHOWN BY BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W. SIMILAR WINDS COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEA AS WELL AS REPORTED BY BUOY 42059 AT 15N67.5W ...AND BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1416 UTC THIS MORNING. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 85W MON MORNING...THEN MOVE THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA WED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE LEFT BEHIND IT WILL SUSTAIN THE ABOVE DESCRIBED TRADES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE WHILE EXPANDING TO THE E WED THROUGH SAT...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ABOUT S OF 18N AND TO E TO 66W...WITH THE 15-20 KT COVERING THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N AND E OF 81W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO MOSTLY 9 FT...BUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUT IN A SMALL AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ALONG 40W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W EARLY ON THU...THEN MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THAT ZONE FRI AND SAT ATTENDED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THAT ZONE. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N88W TO 23N91W MOVING W AT NEAR 10 KT...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF N OF 24N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AGAIN SHOW VERY QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER THE WEAK PRES PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A FEW SHIPS ARE REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A PARTIAL ASCAT FROM NEAR 1600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT THERE AS WELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUE NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF WED THROUGH FRI...A TROUGH WILL FORM FROM ITS ENERGY OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF ON WED...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE GULF THU AND FRI AND FAR SW GULF SAT. THE ONLY IMPACTS TO WINDS WILL BE SEEN AS A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY INITIATE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THOSE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 041858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2011 SW N ATLC... EARLY PRELIMINARY 18 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM 26N72W TO 20N75W...WHILE A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E TO W FROM IT. THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED NICELY ON THE 1415 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT S OF 25N BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 72W WHERE A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS RESULTING IN SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SEAS IN THE GENERAL RANGE OF 3-5 FT ...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE HIGHER SEAS...IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT...ARE OBSERVED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CARRYING THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH IN A NW MOTION TO ACROSS THE REST OF THE SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON TUE...THEN NW TO ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST ON WED AND THU BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY OVER THE FAR NW WATERS LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFSHORES FORECASTS WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND WITH FORECAST SCENARIO DISCUSSED IN THE HPC/NHC MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THAT WILL BE MADE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS E OF THE TROUGH IS TO GO WITH THE LOWER RANGE OF 15-20 KT THROUGH THEN NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MENTION THE WORDING OF "HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS/TSTMS" MAINLY TO THE E OF THE TROUGH. WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK RIDGE TO THE N OF THE TROUGH...I DON'T EXPECT THE PRES GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TOO MUCH NEAR THE TROUGH AS IT LIFTS NW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 18 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE MAP HAS A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W/82W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONFINED OVER THE MUCH OF THE NW AND N SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...MAINLY ATTRIBUTED TO THE UPPER LEVEL MOIST SW FLOW TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A PARTIAL 1418 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W AS ALSO SHOWN BY BUOY 42058 AT 15N75W. SIMILAR WINDS COVER MOST OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEA AS WELL AS REPORTED BY BUOY 42059 AT 15N67.5W ...AND BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1416 UTC THIS MORNING. THE WAVE HAS SLOWED DOWN SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 85W MON MORNING...THEN MOVE THE GULF OF HONDURAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA WED. THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE THAT THE LEFT BEHIND IT WILL SUSTAIN THE ABOVE DESCRIBED TRADES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT TUE WHILE EXPANDING TO THE E WED THROUGH SAT...BUT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ABOUT S OF 18N AND TO E TO 66W...WITH THE 15-20 KT COVERING THE WATERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N AND E OF 81W WITH SEAS BUILDING TO MOSTLY 9 FT...BUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE AGAIN SUGGESTS POSSIBLY UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS BUT IN A SMALL AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE TROPICAL N ALONG 40W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W EARLY ON THU...THEN MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THAT ZONE FRI AND SAT ATTENDED BY A WIND SHIFT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 KT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THAT ZONE. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXETNDS FROM 28N88W TO 23N91W MOVING W AT NEAR 10 KT...WHILE A WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE INCREASING OVER THE EASTERN GULF UNDER THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF N OF 24N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AGAIN SHOW VERY QUIET CONDITIONS UNDER THE WEAK PRES PATTERN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE GULF AND WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A FEW SHIPS ARE REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-5 FT. A PARTIAL ASCAT FROM NEAR 1600 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT THERE AS WELL. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY TUE NIGHT THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE PASSES JUST TO THE S OF THE GULF WED THROUGH FRI...A TROUGH WILL FORM FROM ITS ENERGY OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF ON WED...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE GULF THU AND FRI AND FAR SW GULF SAT. THE ONLY IMPACTS TO WINDS WILL BE SEEN AS A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE BUT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY INITIATE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ACROSS THOSE WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE