000 AGXX40 KNHC 011852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 SW N ATLC... THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEAR 28N THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SURFACE ANALYSES FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN REVEALING. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1516 THIS AFTERNOON CAPTURES THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS'S DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH. VERY STRONG CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY N AHEAD OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ENTERING THE FAR SE WATERS. A FEW SHIPS IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG PUERTO RICO AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE INDICATION NE-E WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE TRACKS W TO NW. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHED SOME OF ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN NW WATERS MON THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH NEAR 28N WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES...THEN SLIDE TO E OF 77W BY TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NW WATERS ALONG 28N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 1338 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS AGAIN WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84/85W WILL INLAND ACROSS ACROSS HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD MONSOON PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. THE WAVE MOVE TO NEAR 71W SAT MORNING ...TO 78W SUN MORNING...THEN SLOW ITS MOTION AS IT TRACKS MORE TO THE NW ACROSS TO NEAR 82W MON AND TO NEAR 85W TUE...AND TO JUST OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A NOTCH BY SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND MIGRATES N. BY MON...THE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TAMPA FLORIDA NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 28N88W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR WATERS. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER LIGHT WIND AND LOW SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE DUE TO TROUGHING ALONG SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING UP TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT...AND TO EVENTUALLY 5-10 KT MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON SAT. THE ENERGY ALOFT THAT REMAINS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERING BEHIND ARLENE OVER THE FAR SW GULF COAST SUN AND MON. AS THIS TROUGHING WEAKENS TUE...WINDS IN THE SW GULF WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW A FRESH BREEZE. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 011852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 01 2011 SW N ATLC... THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NEAR 28N THROUGH SUN NIGHT WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT THE SURFACE ANALYSES FROM THROUGHOUT THE DAY HAVE BEEN REVEALING. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N74W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1516 THIS AFTERNOON CAPTURES THE WIND SHIFT WITH THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS'S DEPICTION OF THE TROUGH. VERY STRONG CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY N AHEAD OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ENTERING THE FAR SE WATERS. A FEW SHIPS IN THAT AREA ALONG WITH COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG PUERTO RICO AND THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE INDICATION NE-E WINDS OF UP TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WINDS SHOULD AFFECT THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT MORNING AS THE WAVE TRACKS W TO NW. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHED SOME OF ITS ENERGY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN NW WATERS MON THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH NEAR 28N WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 31N SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES...THEN SLIDE TO E OF 77W BY TUE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NW WATERS ALONG 28N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE 1338 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS AGAIN WAS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN ON THE CURRENT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84/85W WILL INLAND ACROSS ACROSS HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT MORNING AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A BROAD MONSOON PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W IS MOVING W AT 18 KT. THE WAVE MOVE TO NEAR 71W SAT MORNING ...TO 78W SUN MORNING...THEN SLOW ITS MOTION AS IT TRACKS MORE TO THE NW ACROSS TO NEAR 82W MON AND TO NEAR 85W TUE...AND TO JUST OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA WED. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A NOTCH BY SUN AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND MIGRATES N. BY MON...THE INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH IN ADDITION TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TAMPA FLORIDA NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 28N88W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE FAR WATERS. THE WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR RATHER LIGHT WIND AND LOW SEA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LEFT BEHIND FROM THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE DUE TO TROUGHING ALONG SE TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS THERE MAXING UP TO 8 FT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR THOSE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT...AND TO EVENTUALLY 5-10 KT MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE MONSOON TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ON SAT. THE ENERGY ALOFT THAT REMAINS WILL HELP ENHANCE THE SURFACE TROUGHING LINGERING BEHIND ARLENE OVER THE FAR SW GULF COAST SUN AND MON. AS THIS TROUGHING WEAKENS TUE...WINDS IN THE SW GULF WILL FINALLY FALL BELOW A FRESH BREEZE. ELSEWHERE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE