000 AGXX40 KNHC 261815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN AND PIVOT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MON AN AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NW IN THE EXTREME SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH TUE. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1007 MB. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT N AND NE OF THE LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A WEAKER WAVE ALONG 56-57W S OF HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N54W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED...AND MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 22N68W IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND MON. THIS COULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ROUGHLY ALONG 29N REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TROPICAL WAVES MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL 000 AGXX40 KNHC 261815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2011 GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY WILL SLOW DOWN AND PIVOT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT AND MON AN AREA OF LOW PRES FORMS OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW TRACKING SLOWLY NW IN THE EXTREME SW GULF TOWARD TAMPICO THROUGH TUE. LOWEST PRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 1007 MB. GFS AND SREF ENSEMBLE RUNS SHOW MAX SUSTAINED WINDS TO BE 25-30 KT IN THE SW GULF MON THROUGH TUE AS THE LOW TRACKS NW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT N AND NE OF THE LOW. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX IN THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27-28N. LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW WILL PERSIST IN ALL BUT THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND NW CARIBBEAN. ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND A WEAKER WAVE ALONG 56-57W S OF HIGH PRES CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 30N54W. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY WED...AND MAINTAIN THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND RESULTANT FRESH TO STRONG FLOW. SEAS WILL REMAIN 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREAS OF HIGHER WINDS. MEANWHILE...A COLD CORE UPPER LOW OR TUTT CELL NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 22N68W IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT S TONIGHT AND MON. THIS COULD PROVIDE INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUFFICIENT TO PROMOTE AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE WATERS AROUND HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO INCLUDE POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LAND. SW N ATLC... A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ROUGHLY ALONG 29N REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MID-WEEK. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THU EXCEPT S OF 22N...WHERE FRESH TRADE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STATIONARY RIDGE AND LOWER PRES TROPICAL WAVES MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL