000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N96W EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND THE NE COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0400 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW APPROACHES LAND LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 28N86W...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE AREA'S WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS THERE INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON...AND TO THE NW GULF TUE AND WED AS IT WEAKENS. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE STRONGER ELY FLOW ENCOUNTERING COUNTER CURRENT FLOW. DESPITE THAT...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR NORTHERN PANAMA. THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE LOW CENTER POSITION NEAR 15.5N78W. ESTIMATED PRES OF THE LOW AT 0600 UTC IS 1008 MB. TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE OCCURRING IN A NE TO SW FASHION FROM HISPANIOLA TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 58W S OF 16N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE WAVE ENERGY SHOULD THEN TRANSLATE INTO A TROUGH AXIS THAT BECOMES ALIGNED E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS IT THEN LIFTS NWD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE MON THROUGH WED. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ZONES EXCEPT NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WITH THE ACTUAL LOW IF IT WERE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA AND THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD THE SE UNITED STATES. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND FAR SW PORTION NEAR STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING... THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THEREAFTER. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA WILL PUSH S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OF THE AREA ON SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE IN THE FAR NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE NUDGED ESE SUN EVENING AND INTO MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 31N74W BY WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 040730 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUN 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 24N96W EARLY THIS MORNING IS MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INLAND THE NE COAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0400 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE LOW. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW APPROACHES LAND LATER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1018 MB IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 28N86W...AND WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE AREA'S WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY ISSUE WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO A SLIGHTER TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN PORTIONS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS THERE INTO EARLY SUN AFTERNOON. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON...AND TO THE NW GULF TUE AND WED AS IT WEAKENS. NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOR THE SE WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE STRONGER ELY FLOW ENCOUNTERING COUNTER CURRENT FLOW. DESPITE THAT...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO NEAR NORTHERN PANAMA. THE 0206 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THE LOW CENTER POSITION NEAR 15.5N78W. ESTIMATED PRES OF THE LOW AT 0600 UTC IS 1008 MB. TO THE E OF THE LOW AND TROUGH SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...SOME STRONG...ARE OCCURRING IN A NE TO SW FASHION FROM HISPANIOLA TO ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR THE TIME BEING...THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...EXPECT HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE OVER TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE ALONG 58W S OF 16N IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE WAVE ENERGY SHOULD THEN TRANSLATE INTO A TROUGH AXIS THAT BECOMES ALIGNED E TO W ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS IT THEN LIFTS NWD INTO THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE MON THROUGH WED. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ZONES EXCEPT NEAR SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WITH THE ACTUAL LOW IF IT WERE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST N ATLC... FRESH NE TO E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN HIGH PRES JUST N OF AREA AND THE BROAD LOW PRES AREA OVER PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE HIGH PRES MOVES TOWARD THE SE UNITED STATES. HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE AROUND 7 FT OVER WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...AND FAR SW PORTION NEAR STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING...THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT THEREAFTER. A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST N OF THE AREA WILL PUSH S INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS TODAY...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OF THE AREA ON SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SE IN THE FAR NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL BE NUDGED ESE SUN EVENING AND INTO MON AND TUE AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...AND WEAKENS AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 31N74W BY WED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE