000 AGXX40 KNHC 311834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO S TEXAS. BUOY DATA FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND DEEP LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. BUOYS OVER THE W GULF REPORT SEAS TO 8 FT WITH THE PERSISTENT SE FETCH. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WINDS ARE NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHERE E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED PER SURFACE DATA. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER MEXICO FILLS. WINDS OVER PRIMARILY THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN AROUND 20 KT INTO THE WEEKEND...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SEAS TO 7-8 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO A PERSISTENT ELY FLOW. MEANWHILE SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 11N81W AT 31/1200 UTC. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES. THE DEVELOPING LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W/80W TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW THE LOW GENERALLY MOVING BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BY LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE LOW NEAR HAITI BY THAT TIME. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS GUIDANCE...KEEPING WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AROUND THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES BETWEEN NOW AND SAT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W S OF 14N PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 15N. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EITHER SIDE OF THIS WAVE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MEANWHILE... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 55W. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH LATE WED. HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE S OF 25N THU THROUGH SAT AS LOW PRES BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS SHOULD BE HIGHER...IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR