000
AGXX40 KNHC 310646
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
245 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO S TEXAS. 
BUOY DATA FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS AROUND 15 TO 
20 KT...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND DEEP LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO. BUOYS OVER THE NW GULF REPORT SEAS TO 8 FT WITH THE 
PERSISTENT SE FETCH. OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WINDS ARE NE TO E 
AND ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL 
DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRES OVER MEXICO FILLS. WINDS OVER 
PRIMARILY THE SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN AROUND 
20 KT INTO THE WEEKEND...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE 
NORTH...AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SEAS TO 
8 FT IN THE STRAITS AND S CENTRAL THU AND FRI. MEANWHILE SMOKE 
FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL 
AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT KT WINDS ALONG THE E 
COLOMBIAN COAST...AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING W THROUGH 
70W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W THROUGH 60W...AND WILL 
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS 
MORNING. 

FURTHER W...A LARGE AREA OF TSTMS IS ACTIVE NEAR SAN 
ANDRES ISLAND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...UNDER DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT 
AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
CONSENSUS OF GLOBAL MODELS STILL POINTS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TODAY...ALTHOUGH LATEST 
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE TO NOT DEEPEN APPRECIABLY 
AS IT MIGRATES N. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW THE LOW 
GENERALLY MOVING BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BY FRI. THE ECMWF 
IS SHOWING THE LOW NEAR HAITI BY THAT TIME. 

FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS GUIDANCE. 
FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL COVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH WED...THEN TAPER OFF THU 
AND FRI AS THE LOW SHIFTS N OUT OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE 
W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL COVER THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND 55W. 

SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC...
A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 15 TO 20 KT NE WINDS THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BETWEEN 1023 MB HIGH PRES OFF THE 
CAROLINAS...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO 
24N68W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH INTO WED AS THE RIDGE TO THE N 
WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH STARTS TO DAMPEN OUT. TRADE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE S OF 22N THROUGH THE TURKS/CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS 
BY THU...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. 

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN