000 AGXX40 KNHC 300655 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST. MEANWHILE DEEP LOW PRES IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...E TO SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SEAS ARE REACHING 8 FT OVER THE FAR NW GULF. LOWER WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS AND WITH LIMITED FETCH IN THE E FLOW. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH OVER THE WESTERN GULF STARTING TUE AS THE LOW LIFTS N...AND THE HIGH PRES BUILDS FURTHER W. FRESH NE TO E FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI PRIMARILY OVER THE SE GULF HOWEVER...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE N AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE CARIBBEAN. SMOKE FROM ONGOING WILD FIRES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY STILL BE BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN BELOW 5 NM OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MAIN WEATHER FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM NE NICARAGUA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW LINGERING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN E OF SAN ANDRES...THEN DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT LIFTS N INTO THE W CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND JAMAICA BETWEEN NOW AND THU. THIS SHOULD TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... ALLOWING E TO SE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY LATE MON. SEAS WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDINGLY WITH 8 TO 10 FT BY TUE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W S OF 13N WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN VENEZUELA TODAY PRODUCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AND GUSTY WINDS. A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SE CARIBBEAN IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC 15 TO 20 KT E FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY DUE TO ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA. THIS FEATURE IS NOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WILL INTERACT WITH TROUGHING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SW FLOW FROM THE E PACIFIC TO HELP DEVELOP THE WEAK LOW PRES IN SW CARIBBEAN. SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SW TO NORTHERN FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC AREA W OF 65W...AND A VERY SUBTLE AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH NE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS STARTING LATER TODAY BETWEEN THE TROUGH TO THE SE AND THE RIDGING TO THE N. THIS FLOW DIMINISHES AFTER MIDWEEK AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS OUT. HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADE FLOW WILL INCREASE S OF 22N THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN