000 AGXX40 KNHC 141828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT MAY 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO WILL MOVE TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING AND FROM TAMPA BAY FL TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO SUN MORNING THEN WILL MOVE SE OF AREA MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE PRESENTLY NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N AND E OF 85W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. A NEW COLD FRONT OR A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE N WATERS EARLY MON MOVING RATHER QUICKLY SE AND REACHING THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TUE MORNING THEN EXITING THE AREA BY WED. THESE FRONTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE SE CONUS. EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS. ONCE AGAIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY WED RESULTING IN AN INCREASE OF THE SLY RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT...PARTICULARLY W OF 95W. SW N ATLC... THE LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED N OF AREA ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING AND THE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT THIS EVENING. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST SUN NIGHT THEN WILL EXTEND FROM 30N75W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA MON MORNING WHERE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BUT A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC ... TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH MON THEN DISSIPATE TUE. OTHERWISE WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH SUN AS A WEAK HIGH PRES...CURRENTLY LOCATED N OF THE REGION MOVES E-NE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SUN NIGHT INTO MON THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE BUT A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT W TO NW WINDS N OF 20N...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN SEA SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR