000 AGXX40 KNHC 280739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT THU APR 28 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N60W WITH A RIDGE SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA...WITH FRESH TRADE WINDS S OF 26N E OF BAHAMAS AND MODERATE TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR MODERATE WINDS W OF 78W. ASCAT DATA LAST EVENING SUPPORTS THE SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N TO 27N WHERE THE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS ARE 7-9 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW PORTION THIS EVENING. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS E...WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS WILL BECOME S-SW AT 15-20 KT AND THEN SHIFT NW-N 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING BEFORE VEERING NE SAT AND SUN. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO S FLORIDA EARLY FRI...EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO S FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER S FLORIDA BY LATE SAT WHILE ITS NORTHERN PORTION REACHES THE NE WATERS...THEN MOVES E OF AREA SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD E OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS LATE SAT AND SUN AND BEGIN TO SHIFT E MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOSTLY E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN N OF 16N...AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE VERY PERSISTENT N OF 14N AS SEEN IN BUOY REPORTS. MAX SEAS ARE ABOUT 7 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 7-9 FT IN THE NW SECTION NEAR THE COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF ABOUT 14N. AS THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH. WINDS DIMINISH ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT AS THE ATLC HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD. HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE NW ATLC SAT THROUGH MON WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT SOME OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALLOW FOR NE 20 KT TO KICK UP ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA AND NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LIGHT E WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SUN WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THERE TO 6 FT. GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT MOVES MORE SLOWLY. BUOY ARRAY FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOWS S TO SW WINDS OF 20-325 KT N OF 27N E OF 90W AND SE-S 20 KT ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF E OF FRONT. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT TO 9 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND TO 7 FT IN SW GULF. A RIDGE ALONG 27N WILL SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF FRONT REACHING FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...THEN DISSIPATE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI. THE CURRENTLY OBSERVED SLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME MAINLY SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS FRI AND SAT... AND TO OVER THE FAR NE WATERS SUN AND MON ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WILL THEN DRIVE THE NEXT COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS SUN NIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT...POSSIBLY NW TO N 15-20 KT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL