000
AGXX40 KNHC 130525
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT WED APR 13 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWING FROM TAMPA BAY TO A FRONTAL WAVE AT 
25N95W WITH THE FRONT THEN CONTINUING S TO 18N77W WITH UKMET THE 
CLOSEST GUIDANCE TO THE ACTUAL PSN...AND EVEN THAT MODEL IS 
CONSIDERABLY E OF THE BOUNDARY. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE FL 
STRAITS AROUND SUNSET TODAY...WITH A PORTION BREAKING OFF NEAR 
THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF A N-S ORIENTATED 
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE DEPICTED ON GRAPHICS THROUGH THU NIGHT. A 
POST FRONTAL NE-SW RIDGE IS ALREADY DEVELOPING WITH THE LOW 
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT OVER THE NW WATERS. THIS SE RETURN 
FLOW SHOULD SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE THU...BY 
THEN INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE W WATERS. THE NEXT FRONT 
REACHES TX COAST FRI AFTERNOON WITH MOST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH TIMING BUT VARYING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND 
SHIFT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 15-20 KT N OF 27N BOTH SIDES OF 
FRONT...WITH N-NE 20 KT FILLING IN OVER THE SW GULF EVERYWHERE W 
OF THE FRONT SAT. ONCE AGAIN EXPECT THIS FRONT TO REACH THE FAR 
SE PORTION STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE EXCEPT LEAVING REMNANTS 
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN.

SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W...
A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA TO THE FL STRAITS AND A COLD 
EXTENDS FROM 31N76W TO 28N80W. THE FRONT IS ACCOMPANIED BY 
CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING OVER WATER AND A 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT. THE 
FRONT WILL SLOW TODAY REACHING FROM 31N72W TO SE FL TONIGHT... 
THEN STALLING ALONG ROUGHLY 31N69W TO 26N76W THU NIGHT...AND 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH SAT AS RIDGE BUILDS SW FROM BERMUDA 
TO SE FL. SLY FLOW INCREASES N OF THE RIDGE SAT IN ADVANCE OF 
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST SAT NIGHT...OR ABOUT 6 
HOURS LATER THAN ESTIMATED YESTERDAY. EXPECT THIS SECOND FRONT 
TO STALL FROM ABOUT 31N73W TO 27N80W SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE STILL 
INDICATING AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP N OF 24N ALONG 58W 
FRI AND MEANDER THROUGH SUN.      

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 
70W AND ACROSS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE N OF 10N WITH A
BROAD N-S ORIENTATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN ALONG ROUGHLY 68W. EXPECTING THIS CARIBBEAN TROUGH TO 
MEANDER THROUGH THROUGH THEN DISSIPATE WITH WINDS AT 15-20 KT IN 
CONVECTION
NEAR THE TROUGH RESULTING IN SEAS OCCASIONALLY TO ABOUT 7 FT. 
LIGHTER E TRADES CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON