000 AGXX40 KNHC 051748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA THROUGH 25N89W TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N97W. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WITH LATEST LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING 200-250 LIGHTNING STRIKES PER 5 MINUTES. CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE ISOLATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE W GULF. SOLID 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE SURGING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS TO NEAR GALE LIKELY ESPECIALLY S OF 21N W OF 94W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS VERY TIGHT DUE TO 1022 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER E MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NDBC BUOY 42001 LOCATED NEAR 26N90W ALREADY REPORTING 10 FT SEAS. ALSO S-SW 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 26N E OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA TO THE N YUCATAN COAST THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 9 FT BY SUNSET. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OUT FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WED MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES BUILDS E ACROSS THE SE U.S. WED AND WED NIGHT THEN SHIFTS E-SE INTO THE ATLC BY THU MORNING ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE. HIGH PRES SHIFTS MORE TO THE SW AND CLOSER TO FLORIDA FRI AND SAT WITH RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20-25 KT IN THE W GULF AND 15-20 KT IN THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 1027 MB HIGH PRES IS NE OF THE AREA IN THE W CENTRAL ATLC WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC BETWEEN THE HIGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE NW COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 10N75W. E-SE 20-25 KT WINDS EXIST IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. MEANWHILE NE-E 20-25 KT TRADES COVER THE ENTIRE CENTRAL THROUGH E CARIBBEAN WITH 25-30 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS REPORTED BY NEARBY SHIPS. SEAS IN THAT SAME AREA ARE BETWEEN 10-13 FT. NE-E 20 KT TRADES COVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS INDICATED BY A MORNING WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL REPORTED BY BUOYS. THE TRADES AND GULF OF HONDURAS WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA AND AS THE COLOMBIAN LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS MORE INLAND. TRADES AND GULF OF HONDURAS WINDS WILL MAKE A COMEBACK SAT AS NEW HIGH PRES DEVELOPS IN THE SW N ATLC JUST N OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION REACHING FROM NEAR 31N79W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. AN INTENSE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOCATED WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHILE A SECONDARY SUPER-CELLULAR LOOKING LINE HAS MORE RECENTLY FORMED ABOUT 180 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES 150-200 STRIKES IN A 5 MINUTE PERIOD OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 20-30 KT EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 31N57W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MEANWHILE NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ARE ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO GRAND BAHAMA THIS EVENING THEN FROM JUST W OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING PUSHING E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND IT JUST N OF THE AREA. UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS FRONT THE LARGE NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. E-SE FLOW SETS UP S OF THIS HIGH ACROSS THE BASIN WED NIGHT AND THU. THE HIGH WILL THEN RETROGRADE AND SHIFT MORE TO THE SW AND IN TO THE N CENTRAL WATERS FRI AND SAT ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT AND BECOME VARIABLE N OF 27N BY THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY 10-15 KT WINDS S OF 27N. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY