000 AGXX40 KNHC 050738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE PHOTOS AND SFC OBS ACROSS THE BASIN SUGGEST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED QUICKLY TO THE FAR WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO...WHERE NLY WIND FUNNELING BEHIND IT HAS FIRED OFF A CLUSTER OF DEEP CNVTN. BUOY 42040 AT DAUPHIN ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 37 KT...WHILE SEVERAL OIL RIGS OFF THE TEXAS COAST CONTINUE TO REPORT 30-35 KT NNE WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO 22N95W THEN S TO COASTAL MEXICO BY 12Z IN THE MORNING...THEN FROM NAPLES TO 23N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 00Z TONIGHT THEN STALLING ACROSS THE SE GULF AND THROUGH THE STRAITS BY 12Z WED. OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS ALONG LOWER MEXICAN COAST MAY YIELD SMALL AND BRIEF AREAS OF NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS...BUT OTHERWISE...MODELS HAVE BACKED AWAY FROM GALES ACROSS THE OPEN GULF AND SUGGEST MODEST CHANCE FOR GALES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST S OF 21N THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY BRIEF AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE MEXICAN NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL NOT ISSUE A GALE WARNING FOR THIS LATE SEASON EVENT...AND MAINTAIN THE 25-30 KT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT ACROSS THE N AND NE GULF BY AFTERNOON TODAY AND THEN ACROSS ALL BUT SW GULF BY THIS EVENING. SHIFTING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GEORGIA BY WED MORNING ALLOWING FOR QUICKLY VEERING WINDS AND MODERATE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE BASIN...SPREADING TO E PORTIONS WED NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING CENTERED ALONG 90W FORCES DYNAMICS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS UP AND OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE W ATLC HAS SHIFTED E TO NEAR 32N63W THIS MORNING WITH FRESH ELY TRADES GENERALLY E OF 78W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES...WITH MODERATE SELY FLOW DEPICTED ACROSS THE NW CARIB...AND 20 KT E TO ESE FLOW BLOWING THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS. AS HIGH DRIFTS FURTHER E NEXT 6-12 HOURS...FRESH WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO YIELD ENE FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS SCENARIO THROUGH WED MORNING BEFORE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SW N ATLC AND INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REDUCING GRADIENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE SRN CARIB. WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS MORNING ACROSS COLOMBIAN COASTAL WATERS AT AROUND 30 KT AND 13-14 FT BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THROUGH WED MORNING. NEW HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SW N ATLC LATE WED AND THEN RESIDE JUST TO THE W AND SW OF BERMUDA INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIB E OF 80W. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... AS THE W ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY E...THE WEAK SW TAIL OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT HAS EXTENDED TO NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS BUT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT HAS MOVED W-NW AND JUST OF THE SE BAHAMAS. FRESH E TO SE FLOW S OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE S FLORIDA OFFSHORE WATERS...BECOMING SLY AT 20-25 KT N OF 26N. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER FURTHER AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY AFTERNOON AS THE GULF COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS N FLORIDA...AND FRESH E TO SE TRADES SHIFT E TO BETWEEN 75W AND 60W. S-SW GALES ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT JUST ALONG THE N BORDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. WILL THEREFORE NOT ISSUE GALES FOR ATLC WATERS EITHER. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT FOR QUICKLY VEERING WINDS TO NE WED AFTERNOON AND THEN NE TO E WED NIGHT...BECOMING SE ALONG THE FLORIDA E COASTAL WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL THEN RESIDE JUST SW OF BERMUDA TO MAINTAIN MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND...AND FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 15N. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING