000 AGXX40 KNHC 030740 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT SUN APR 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1018 HIGH CENTERS STRADDLE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28.5N85.5W. SE RETURN FLOW HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT IN THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE NW GULF AS THE LLVL TROF MOVING W OF 90W ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS APPEARS TO HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED IN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MODERATE E TO SE FLOW TO GENERALLY PREVAIL THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING MORE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS...THEN 20-25 KT ACROSS THE W HALF TONIGHT. MY CONFIDENCE BEYOND MON MORNING IS LOW ATTM AS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN IN 3 GLOBAL MODELS IN HANDLING OF NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE U.S. AND INTO THE N GULF MON AND TUE...AND THIS HAS RAMIFICATIONS IN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WINDS AND SEAS. 00Z GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST WHILE ECMWF REMAINS THE SLOWEST...WITH UKMET SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE. THE SLOWER ECMWF BUILDS THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT FARTHER S AND SE...ALLOWING FOR STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...AND STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES OR NEAR GALES ACROSS W PORTIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. FASTER GFS AND UKMET SHIFT HIGH MORE EWD AND ALLOW LESS OF A GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT. AT THIS TIME I HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE COMPROMISE UKMET MORE CLOSELY. HOWEVER...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MODELS BEGIN TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF NEXT FEW RUNS. MODELS SUGGEST GALES MAY BE SEEN IMMEDIATELY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS MON EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUE ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTS WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCE TYPICALLY OCCURS. THIS TO ALSO AFFECT WWIII OUTPUT AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHER SEAS IN SW GULF TO ALLOW FOR STRONGER FLOW BEHIND FRONT. HIGH PRES MOVES INTO THE NW GULF BY 00Z WED THEN SHIFTS E ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PORTIONS BY WED MORNING. INCREASED SE TO S FLOW TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL ATLC STRETCHING SW TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING HAS GREATLY WEAKENED ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE...WITH WEAK 1018 MB HIGH BEHIND FRONT JUST N OF NW BAHAMAS PRODUCING WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH 20 KT TRADES CONFINED TO S OF 14N THIS MORNING. HIGH PRES TO REORGANIZE TODAY OFF OF COASTAL CAROLINAS AND INCREASE GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPANDING 20 KT TRADES NWD TO NEAR THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND INCREASING FLOW OFF OF COLOMBIA TO 25-30 KT. ALTHOUGH HIGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT E THROUGH TUE EVENING...STRONG RIDGING AHEAD OF APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THAT WILL SPREAD E INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND TUE. WINDS WILL VEER SELY ACROSS NW PORTIONS TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. FRONT STILL NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE BEYOND YUCATAN PENINSULA OR CHANNEL AND WILL NOT REACH CARIB WATERS AS IT STALLS WED MORNING AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT N. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ALONG 25.5N N OF PUERTO RICO TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS WHERE IT IS WASHING OUT. AS MENTIONED BELOW HIGH PRES WILL REORGANIZE OFF COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN...INCREASING THE GRADIENT TO THE S OF THE HIGH TO PRODUCE FRESH ENE TRADES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING THEN BECOMING E TO SE AND INCREASING TO 20-25 KT EARLY MON AS HIGH SHIFTS E AND OPENS UP ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO AND SE U.S. THIS TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 5-8 FT BETWEEN CUBA AND BAHAMAS MON INCREASING TO 7 TO 9 FT S OF TURKS AND CAICOS BY MON EVENING. AGAIN...TIMING DIFFERENCES AND HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE IN TIME THROUGH WED IN TERMS OF FRONTAL POSITION AND ADVANCEMENT TO THE SE AT THIS TIME IS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEYOND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WED MORNING BEFORE STALLING. THIS ALSO TO PLAY OUT IN WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST JUST N OF THE AREA AS FRONT MOVES OFF CAROLINAS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST BY ECMWF TO LIKELY AFFECT FAR N PORTIONS TUE EVENING AND NIGHT. FRONT TO MOVE NE OF AREA BY WED EVENING WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND IT AND MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING THROUGH FRI MORNING. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING