000 AGXX40 KNHC 011706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI APR 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM EXTREME SW FL TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE FL STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GUIDANCE HANGS ON TO SOME REMNANT MOISTURE...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT CLOUDINESS LEFT BEHIND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE... AND LIFTS THE MOISTURE N ACROSS THE W GULF WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. A SURFACE HIGH NOW FORMING OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT ENE TO OVER N FL/S GA SUN...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING W ALONG 28N SUN NIGHT AND MON. SE RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ENTIRE AREA BY LATE SUN AND INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT MON NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TX COAST AT SUNSET MON. GFS/GFSP MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SUGGESTING POST FRONTAL GALE. NOTE THAT GFS OVER FORECAST THE NLY WINDS BEHIND TODAYS FRONT WHEN 4-5 DAYS OUT. EUROPEAN HINTING AT A VERY BRIEF NLY GALE EXTREME SW GULF TUE MORNING. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 30 KT MAX IN POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS. SW N ATLC... THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY SE ACROSS FL BUT MOVING QUICKLY E AND SE OVER THE ATLC WATERS N OF 27N. THIS INITIAL FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW CUBA TONIGHT...THEN STALL AGAIN ALONG 31N58W TO 27N65W TO SE CUBA SAT NIGHT. BY THEN...A SECONDARY REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE RACING SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND SHOULD MERGE WITH THE INITIAL FRONT SUN AFTERNOON ALONG 31N56W TO 24N65W TO 20N73W. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT FROM 25N55W TO NEAR PUERTO RICO MON NIGHT AND TUE. A POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE OFF GA COAST SUN AND SHIFT E PASSING BERMUDA AROUND SUNSET MON...NOTING SAME SCENARIO BUT ABOUT 12 HOURS FASTER THAT YESTERDAYS FORECAST. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH MON AND EARLY TUE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST AROUND SUNSET TUE. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY 30 KT MAX WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT DISSECTING THE ATLC ZONE NE-SW AT SUNRISE WED. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... THE SE TRADES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE TILL THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SUN NIGHT INCREASING THE SE WINDS TO A MAX OF 20-25 KT BY LATE MON NIGHT...THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AS THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AROUND SUNRISE WED. E TO SE TRADES WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TILL LATE MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN SPREADING N ACROSS ALL WATERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON