000
AGXX40 KNHC 261717
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT SAT MAR 26 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS S FL TURNING NW TO NEAR THE NE TX 
COAST MAINTAINING INCREASING SLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE W 
GULF WATERS. THE RIDGE WILL RETRACT A TAD SE ON SUN ALLOWING A 
VERY WEAK COLD FRONT TO DRIFT SE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL 
PLAINS AND WATERS...GRADUALLY WASHING OUT BY SUNRISE TUE AS THE 
SLY FLOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY AGAIN. RIDGE WEAKENS EARLY TUE NIGHT 
WITH SECOND FRONT ENTERING NW WATERS LATE TUE NIGHT...REACHING A 
PSN FROM EXTREME W FL PANHANDLE TO NW BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND 
SUNSET WED...WHERE IT SEEMS TO BRIEFLY STALL...AND PERHAPS EVEN 
DRIFT A LITTLE NW WED NIGHT. A SECONDARY RE-INFORCING NLY SURGE 
ARRIVES OVER THE NW WATERS SUNRISE THU AND PUSHES THE FRONT TO 
THE SE GULF WATERS AROUND SUNRISE FRI. BEST GUESS FOR NOW IS NLY 
WINDS WILL MAX AT 30 KT...WITH MAX SEAS BRIEFLY TO 12 FT...PER 
12Z GFS AND 06Z GFS PARALLEL. 

SW N ATLC W OF 55W...
ATLC COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED THUS CHANGED WORDING TO FRONTAL 
TROUGH ON THIS MORNINGS TEXT PACKAGE...WITH TROUGH DEFINED ALONG 
POINTS 31N48W TO 28N55W TO 31N65W TO 26N76W. LITTLE INDICATION 
OF LOW PRES PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED NEAR 31N65W...JUST TO S OF 
BERMUDA SO WILL DROP FROM 18Z ANALYSIS. EXPECT TROUGH TO 
CONTINUE E TONIGHT...BUT LOSE IDENTITY BY SUNRISE SUN AS RIDGE 
BUILDS W ACROSS MOST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC TO THE SE FL COAST. 
SLY FLOW WILL INCREASE N OF RIDGE SUN WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES 
OF COLD FRONTS ENTERING THE GA COASTAL WATERS LATE MON...RACING 
E TO A PSN FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FL SUNRISE TUE. WINDS N OF 
FRONT WILL QUICKLY CLOCK TO THE S AND INCREASE EARLY WED IN 
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW CORNER 
THU NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A 20 TO 25 KT WIND SHIFT EXCEPT A 30 KT 
SHIFT RIGHT ALONG FRONT BOUNDARY AT 31N...WITH LITTLE DIFFERENCE 
IN GFS OR ITS PREVIOUS PARALLEL RUN. ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO 12 FT WITH HIGHEST N OF 30N LATE IN THE WEEK. 
    
CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
EASTERLY TRADES INCREASING AGAIN AS ATLC RIDGE IS SHIFTING N 
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED TILL A COLD FRONT 
ARRIVES IN YUCATAN BASIN AROUND SUNRISE FRI.

WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON